臺灣生育人口之經濟分析

近年來生育率逐年下降，因此興起了想要研究什麼變數會造成出生人數增加或下降，本文按生母教育程度在大專畢業、高中畢業、國中畢業、國小畢業，消費者物價指數、女性勞動參與率、自有住宅率共七個變數來分析各變數影響臺灣主要城市出生人數之現象。研究利用Excel之迴歸分析探討臺灣地區自民國67年至100年出生人口數是否受生母學歷、女性勞動參與率、消費者物價指數、自有住宅率的影響，所得出的結論為生母之學歷對於生育人數造成相當之影響，若生母教育程度越高，則出生率減少的比例越高，而兩者之間呈反向影響。而女性勞動參與率越高，也會使得出生人數減少；而擁有自有住宅率對於出生率則出現正向的影響；但變數之一的消費者物價指數對於出生人數的影響不顯著。因此想要增加出生人數，可以多增加年輕夫妻之自有住宅率，減少女性勞動參與率，或由政府提供較優惠之育嬰假期或補助。

關鍵字

自有住宅率；消費者物價指數；生母教育程度大專畢業；生育率；女性勞動參與率；生母教育程度國中畢業；生母教育程度國小畢業；生母教育程度高中畢業

並列摘要

In summary, the fertility rate in Taiwan has been declining recently. The study wants to investigate what variables cause a decline in the number of birth rate. Explanatory variables includes the number of live births by mothers who obtained graduate level of education, graduated from high school and from junior high school, as well as elementary school graduation; Besides, consumer price index, the female labor force participation rate, and self-owned dwelling residential rate. To explore Taiwan’s fertility, the study uses Excel regression analysis covering time period from 1978 to 2011. The study finds that the birth number can be affected by mother’s education, female labor force participation rate, consumer price index, and self-owned residential rate. Empirical results suggested that mother’s qualifications may affected Taiwan’s fertility. These is negative impact of higher level of education, upon the percentage of birth rate. Meanwhile, higher rate of female labor force participation will also cause a reduction in the number of births. Besides, ratio of self-owned residential rate may increase the number of birth rate. But variable of consumer price index showed no significant effect on the number of birth rate. In order to increase the number of birth rate, Government can apply policies to increase young couple’s own residential rate, or to compensate in reduction of female labor force participation rates, or to provide young mother with more child-raising holidays.