越南人口政策對金融市場的衝擊

Demographic Policy and Corresponding Movements of Vietnam Financial Markets

裴氏花梅(Mai Bui Thi Hoa)

指導教授 ： 高一誠

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2015.00217

摘要

摘要
過去30年來人口結構與金融市場是文獻上關注的議題，然而，主要研究集中在已發展國家如美國與歐洲，而較少觸及開發中國家的相關議題。本研究首次探討越南金融市場與其人口結構的關係，並考慮人口與經濟兩類解釋變數。我們考慮的人口因素包含老人依賴度、出生率、與成人死亡率；經濟因素則包含每人平均GDP與通貨膨脹率。另外，本研究同時探討越南政府於1988年實施的一胎或兩胎化政策之可能影響。在此政策下，婦女平均生育數由5胎下降至2胎，而人口成長率在10年內下降至1.2%。我們實證結果發現，相較於股票與匯率，利率更顯著地受到人口結構因素的影響，其中，政府人口政策與老人依賴度對短期利率有負向影響。在股票市場上，出生率與成人死亡率則對股票市場有正向影響；此外，與已發展國家的經驗不同，老人依賴度對於越南股票市場亦有正向影響。最後，匯率則與人口與經濟兩類解釋變數無顯著關係

關鍵字

一胎或兩胎化政策 ； 老人依賴度 ； 人口

並列摘要

Abstract
Over the last three decades, an emerging literature has focused its attention into the demographic effects on financial markets. However, the majority of studies were investigated in developed countries such as the United States or Western Europe while less scrutiny for the developing countries. This research aims to explore the relation between demography and financial markets for the first time in Vietnam. My research considers two types of factors are the demographic and the economic factors. The demographic factors include the old dependency growth, the birth and the adult survival rates while the economic factors cover the GDP per capita growth and the inflation. The research also considers the family-size control policy named “one or two child” (in action from 1988) as a fundamental cause. This policy has limited the size of most families with two-child norm which has helped Vietnam reduce the fertility rate from five to around two children per woman and the population growth was minimized to 1.2% within 10 years. The empirical results indicate that the interest rates are more sensitive with the changes in the demographic structures than the stock and exchange rates. The population policy decreased the non-term interest rate by 1.68% and the old dependency growth declined it by 1.71%. The demographic group factors had significant impacts on the stock market. The birth rate and the adult survival rate had positive consequence on the stock market while the old dependency growth had impact in different directions on Vietnam stock prices from the previous studies in the well-developed markets. It has increased the stock returns by 0.007%. The results also illustrated that the exchange rate has been less influenced by those two groups of factors.

並列關鍵字

Old dependency rate ； “One or two child” policy ； Demography

參考文獻

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