以網絡效果探討維基百科成長 之擴散現象

The Diffusion Model with Network Effect in the Wikipedia

林書佑(Lin-Su Yo)

指導教授 ： 曲祉寧

中原大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800477

摘要

過往文獻在探討擴散模型研究時，研究對象大多以消費性產品為主，本研究是第一個在資源開放系統 (open source system) 背景下，探討維基百科背後成功的協調機制。本研究以Guevara, Elberse and Putsis (2002) 所發展的擴散模型 (diffusion model) 為研究工具，將維基百科中的編寫者人數、瀏覽者人數與文章品質作為研究變數，透過網絡效果 (network effect) 來解釋三者是如何創造維基百科的成功。本研究以英文版的維基百科作為研究對象，利用維基百科網站上所提供的各項數據進行實證研究 (資料範圍從2001年1月至2006年9月的月資料) 。研究發現擴散模型的確可以做為探討網絡效果的研究構面以及解釋資源開放系統 (open source system) 類型下的維基百科，也證明網絡效果中「網絡的大小 (網路外部性) 」與「網絡成員的績效表現 (互補性函數) 」在維基百科成長過程中所扮演的重要角色，其帶動維基百科在短短的幾年內成為全球最大的百科全書。我們的實證並間接證明了「網絡的大小 (網路外部性) 」對「網絡成員的績效表現 (互補性函數) 」存在高度影響之關係。

關鍵字

擴散模型 ； 網路外部性 ； 互補性函數 ； 網絡效果 ； 維基百科

並列摘要

Most researches of diffusion model were focused on the consumptive product in terms of literature review. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt in the marketing literature to take the Wikipedia, belonging to the category of "open source" as our research target to exploit the collaborative mechanism behind the Wikipedia. We follow the methodology proposed by Guevara, Elberse and Putsis (2002) as our appropriate research device, considering three variables in our diffusion model: the number of editor, the number of viewer and the quality of article, to explain how those three factors create the value by virtue of the network effect in Wikipedia. Our study embraces English version of Wikipedia as our primary research target and apply the data set, derived from the website of Wikipedia, to demonstrate our research. Our estimations confirm that the diffusion model can produce an appropriate fit with network effect regarding the category of "open source." For the further validation of estimation, we demonstrate that 「the size of the network (network externalities)」 and 「the performance produced by the network member (complementary function)」existing between network effect can be referred to as indispensable in the course of fostering the growth of Wikipedia. On the other hand, we also prove that 「the size of the network (network externalities)」 has substantially influential effect upon「the performance produced by the network member (complementary function)」.

並列關鍵字

Diffusion model ； complementary function ； Wikipedia ； Network externalities ； Network effect

參考文獻

Antonelli, C. (1985), “The Diffusion of an Organizational Innovation”, International Journal of Industrial Organization, vol. 3, pp. 109-118.

Arazy, O. & R. Patterson. (2005), “An analysis of open content systems”, Proceedings of the Fifteenth Annual Workshop on Information Technologies and Systems, Las Vegas, Nevada. December 10-11, 2005.

Bass, F.M. (1969), “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables”, Management Science, vol. 15, pp. 215-227.

Bass, F.M. (1980), “The Relations between Diffusion Rates, Experience Curves and Demand Elasticities for Consumer Durable Technological Innovation”, Journal of Business, vol. 53,pp. 51-67.

Bass, F.M. (1993), “The Future of Research in Marketing: Marketing Science”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol. 30, pp. 1-6.