- 學位論文
總體經濟因素與銀行脆弱性對境外金融之影響
The Influence of Macroeconomic Factor and Banking Fragility on Offshore Banking Units (OBU)
摘要
境外金融中心為一國、地區域或城市，利用較低稅率與降低(或消除)限制方式，吸引非居住民的國際金融業務。國際資金的需求者與供給者可使用境外金融中心的便利性來進行交易。影響境外金融發展的因素眾多，包括總體經濟因素、投資環境與國內金融體系。因此，本研究以境外金融資產(負債)做為應變數，以GDP成長率、進口數量/GDP、金融深化指標、存放款利率差、銀行脆弱性指標(BSF)、M2/外匯存底、M2乘數、實質匯率、亞洲金融風暴(虛擬變數)作為解釋變數。並採用SUR模型針對台灣、新加坡、香港、日本、馬來西亞與泰國六個境外金融中心做測試。另外，以銀行競爭力指標將研究對象分成銀行競爭體系偏完全競爭市場與偏寡占市場，利用SUR模型來檢視對境外金融資產與負債的影響的差異。 實證結果，不論在境外金融資產或負債，主要影響的因素為進口數量/GDP、金融深化指標、存放款利率差、BSF、M2乘數、實質匯率。在SUR模型的檢測下，發現可利用限制式評估六個境外金融中心。綜合而言，對於境外金融中心的管制較為嚴格之國家，在區域性的金融危機發生時，較能避免透過境外銀行貸款管道所產生外溢效果。反觀泰國與馬來西亞，由於太過寬鬆的金融制度而導致金融危機的發生。因此，寬鬆的金融制度吸引較多的海外銀行來此站駐，但若國內的體制不佳時，反而會造會反效果。 因此，影響各國金融中心的因素除了一國的總體經濟基礎與貿易聯結，金融體系的健全更加重要，在各國拓展境外金融中之業務時，同時也要考慮是否有信用過度擴張與太過仰賴外資的情況，否則當經濟體系出問題時，可能藉由境外金融的貸款管道而影響到國內的金融體系，甚至外溢到其它的經濟體系。
並列摘要
Offshore financial center, so called Offshore banking Unit (OBU), dealt with international financial activities, and located in a country, a region or a city with lower-taxed and less restrictions to attract nonresident financial business. The conveniences of OBU could attract international capital transactions for both demanders and suppliers. There are many factors would affect the development of OBU, including macroeconomic factors, invest environment and domestic financial system. Therefore, this study adopts OBU asset (and liability) as dependent variable, and include GDP Growth Rate, Import/GDP, Financial Deepening, Lending-Deposit Rate Difference, Banking Sector Fragility (BSF), M2/Reserve, M2 Multiplier, Real Exchange Rate and Asian Financial Crisis (a dummy) as independent variables, the author use SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) model to examine the OBU of Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand. Furthermore, This study introduces SUR model to examine the differences of the asset and liabilities of OBU. At same time, this paper uses bank competition (H-statistic) to separate both monopolistic competition (H1) and perfect competition (H2) from six OBUs. The empirical results of this study showed the main factors are Import/GDP, Financial Deepening, Lending-Deposit Rate Difference, BSF, M2 Multiplier and Real Exchange Rate. By testing SUR model, the author found that the restricted function was applicable to all six OBUs. Therefore, if regional crisis occurred, the spillover effect could be more easily avoided by a country having more restriction on OBU’s loans. For instance, Thailand and Malaysia have a loosely expansionary financial system leading the crisis occurrence. Therefore, expansionary financial system could attract more foreign banks to set up branches, but there will be a negative impact if a weakly financial system existed. Therefore, a sound financial system is more important than macroeconomic fundamentals and trade linkages. To improve implementation of OBU, one shall consider that the problem of expansionary credit and excessive dependence on foreign funds. When problems happened in financial system, OBU lending channel could indirectly affect domestic financial system and spillover to other economies.