匯率波動和外國直接投資流量對雙邊貿易的影響

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI Flows on Bilateral Trade

李凱彥(Kairat Ivagov)

指導教授 ： 高克爾

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202000852

摘要

貿易關係是經濟發展的重要組成部分，尤其是在近年來全球化和經濟一體化繁榮的今天。許多研究人員選擇貿易引力模型作為描述影響雙邊貿易的因素（例如距離，國內生產總值，貿易協定，通用語言等）的工具。該研究基於全球18個國家的數據來追踪有關貿易，貿易和金融的全球影響。距離。首先，要發現匯率波動對雙邊貿易量的負面影響，這可以解釋為試圖避免匯率風險從而減少國際貿易量的企業。第二，結合其他因變量，例如距離和發展水平，研究外國直接投資對雙邊貿易量的影響。如果這兩個國家相距遙遠，隨著外國直接投資流量的增加以及觀察到的經濟體的發展水平相近，則總體而言，消極的趨勢點是減少雙邊貿易流量，這是指橫向投資戰略。最後一點表明，隨著時間的流逝，外國投資將加劇貿易量的下降。所有假設均得到統計學上顯著的經驗結果的支持。此外，研究還包括測試世界貿易組織對雙邊貿易趨勢的影響，並重新估算針對通貨膨脹影響調整後的所有模型。加入世貿組織比起國家之間的自由貿易協定，對貿易活動的影響更大。此外，使用通貨膨脹調整後的貿易數據，它可以提高模型的整體適應性，而結果仍然支持假設。

關鍵字

雙邊貿易 ； 引力模型 ； 外國直接投資 ； 匯率波動。

並列摘要

Trade relationships are an essential part of economic development, especially in recent years of prosperity of globalization and economic integration. Many researchers choose a gravity model of trade as a tool to describe the factors that affect bilateral trade such as distance, GDP, trade agreements, common language, etc. This study based on the data of 18 countries worldwide to trace a global effect regarding a distance. First, to find the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade volume, which might be explained as businesses that trying to avoid the exchange rate risk, therefore reducing the volume of international trade. Second, to study FDI flows effect with a combination of other dependent variables, such as distance and development level, on bilateral trade volume. If the pair of countries are located far from each other, with increasing in FDI flows and similar development levels of observed economies, overall, negative trend points on reducing bilateral trade flow as referring to horizontal investment strategy. The last point shows that foreign investments will strengthen the decrease in trade volume as time goes by. All hypotheses have been supported by statistically significant empirical results. Additionally, the research includes testing the World Trade Organization’s influence on the bilateral trade trends and re-estimates all the models adjusted for the inflation effect. Membership in WTO has a more essential effect on trading activities than free trade agreements between the nations. Moreover, using the inflation-adjusted trade data, it improves the overall fitness of the models while outcomes remain supporting the hypotheses.

並列關鍵字

Bilateral Trade ； Gravity Model ； Foreign Direct Investment ； Exchange Rate Volatility.

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