外國直接投資對經濟成長的影響：以印尼為例

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: The Case of Indonesia

薩 妮 塔(SANITA DHAKIRAH)

指導教授 ： 廖 先 昱

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201800183

摘要

摘要
國外直接投資（FDI）對於開發中國家扮演著關鍵的角色。然而，國外直接投資是否對於這些開發中國家有重大的影響仍未達成共識。本論文之目的在於分析國外直接投資對於經濟成長的影響，並以開發中國家印尼為例。本研究採用從1990年到2016年印尼的時間序列資料來做實證分析，包含兩個複迴歸模型。第一種迴歸模型利用總體經濟資料進行分析，例如：國內生產毛額（GDP）、國外直接投資、國內直接投資、勞動力、貨幣供給量以及預算赤字。第二種迴歸模型利用九個不同的主要部門進行探究，依序為：農林漁木業、社區個人服務業、建築業、水電業、製造業、礦業、房地產業、運輸倉儲業，以及零售批發飯店服務業。根據估計結果，當考慮總體的經濟成長時，國外直接投資對經濟成長的正向影響並不顯著。然而，在考慮對於不同部門之影響時，只有製造業的國外直接投資對經濟成長有正面的貢獻。

關鍵字

國外直接投資 ； 經濟成長 ； 單根檢定 ； 定態數列 ； 最小平方法

並列摘要

ABSTRACT
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a key role in the developing countries. However, whether FDI has the significant impact on these countries still does not reach a consensus. The goal of this thesis is to analyze the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth of the developing countries, taking Indonesia for example. We use two kinds of the multiple regression model to cope with time series data in Indonesian economy from 1990 until 2016. The first one employs the aggregate data of some macro variables such as, gross domestic product (GDP), FDI, domestic direct investment, labor, M2, and budget deficit. The second one analyzes sectoral data in 9 major economic sectors, including Agriculture Hunting, Forestry, and Fishery; Community, Social, and Personal Service; Construction; Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply; Manufacturing; Mining and Quarrying; Real Estate and Business; Transportation and Warehousing, Communication; Wholesale and Retail Trade, Hotel and Restaurant. The results show when measuring the average growth performance for the whole economy, the positive impact of FDI on GDP is not statistically significant. However, when examining sectoral impacts, estimation results show that only in the manufacturing sector, the FDI has a positive and significant effect on GDP growth.

並列關鍵字

FDI, economic growth, unit root test, stationary series, ordinary least squares

參考文獻

REFERENCES

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