氣候變遷對感潮河口地區淹水災害之影響-以林邊溪為例

Effect of Climate Change on the Inundation of Tidal Estuary Region-Lin Ban Creek as an Example

余學桓(Hsueh-Huan Yu)

指導教授 ： 林孟郁

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500965

摘要

本研究應用FIS2D (Flood Inundation Simulation 2D)淹水模式，針對屏東縣林邊溪流域進行氣候變遷情境下之數值模擬。由於全球氣候變遷的影響，導致極端降雨事件發生的機率增高，以及海平面上升等問題產生，故本研究選定林邊溪流域配合2009年之莫拉克颱風降雨事件進行模式驗證，以確認其模擬結果是否與現地淹水紀錄呈現合理之結果，而後即可對林邊溪流域進行氣候變遷情境之數值模擬，藉此分析與探討氣候變遷對於林邊溪流域淹水災害程度的實際影響，其模擬結果顯示氣候變遷下重現期距200年的結果最為顯著，最大淹水高度可達4.0公尺以上，且若海平面上升導致海堤破損，沿海附近等地區的淹水情況將更為嚴重。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； FIS2D淹水模式 ； 極端降雨 ； 海平面上升

並列摘要

This study investigates the effect of climate change on the flood inundation in the basin of Lin-Ban Creek using FIS2D (Flood Inundation Simulation 2D) model.Global climate change may increase the strength of extreme rainfall events and induces sea-level rising.Therefore, we choose Typhoon Morakot to test the accuracy of this model. the simulating results of flooding area and depth are inreasonable agreement with in situ record. After verifying the stability of the model, we can simulate and analyze the effect of climate change on the flood inundation in the basin of Lin-Ban Creek. Computational results reveal that maximum flooding depth may be over 4.0 meter in the scenario of 200-year flood. If sea levee also breaks due to sea-level rising, it will become more serious on flooding area and depth in the coastal area near Lin-Ban Creek.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； FIS2D model ； Extreme rainfall ； Sea-level rise

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