- 學位論文
匯率對經濟成長與觀光收入因果關係之門檻效果
The threshold effect of exchange rate on the economic growth - tourism receipts causality
摘要
摘要 本研究採用人類發展指數(human development index)列表分為極高、高、中、低四個種類不同發展程度之53個國家的國內生產毛額（GDP per capital)、國際觀光收入（international tourism receipts）、人口總數（population）及官方匯率（official exchange rate）資料。樣本區間自1995年至2013年，共計19年資料，以縱橫資料(panel data)形式，利用González et al. (2005)所提出的縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model，PSTR)，藉由匯率作為轉換變數，找出匯率的門檻值，探討國家於不同匯率情況下，經濟成長及觀光收入的互相影響情形。根據實證結果，可獲得下列結論： 一、國內生產毛額及國際觀光收入存在雙向因果關係，而國內生產毛額對國際觀光收入存在非線性關係，經濟成長確實能帶動國際觀光收入。 二、國內生產毛額及國際觀光收入因果關係是非線性的，隨著時間及匯率之變動而產生不同的影響，政府利用匯率政策，使匯率升值，國內生產毛額成長將可增加國際觀光收入；但若長期使匯率波動幅度太大，反而將削弱國內生產毛額帶動國際觀光收入成長的力道。
並列摘要
Abstract In this study, human development index list is divided into very high human development, high human development, medium human development and low human development different levels of four types. We select GDP per capital、international tourism receipts、population、official exchange rate in the 53 countries of of human development index. Sample period from 1995 to 2013, a total of 19 years of data, a panel data form, the use of González et al. Aspect (2005) proposed a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR, by converted by the exchange rate as a variable, find the threshold exchange rate, and to explore at different exchange rates, the impact of economic growth and international tourism receipts each country situation. According to empirical results obtained the following conclusions: First, the existence of GDP and international tourism receipts bidirectional causality, while GDP nonlinear relationship between international tourism receipts, economic growth can really drive the international tourism receipts. Second, the GDP and international tourism receipts causal relationship is nonlinear, with the exchange rate and changes in time and have different effects, the use of the exchange rate policy of the government, so that the exchange rate appreciation, the growth of GDP will increase international tourism receipts; However, if the long-term exchange rate fluctuations so much, but it would weaken GDP growth driven by international tourism receipts strength.