應用系統動力學分析流行性感冒-以H1N1新型流感為例

Analysis of influenza epidemic by system dynamics-for the example of H1N1 swine flu

許晉源(Jin-Yuan Hsu)

指導教授 ： 楊康宏

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201101050

摘要

近年來在全球化的趨勢之下，大規模的流感疫情不斷出現，像是2005年嚴重急性呼吸道症候群（SARS）與2009年H1N1新型流感（Swine Flu）均造成相當大的影響。雖然各國政府對防治傳染性疾病比過去來的更有經驗，但對於如何準確預估疫情及制定適合的防疫政策仍是一大考驗。

本研究利用傳染病學中的倉室模型及系統動力學建立傳染病傳染模型，其中考慮有無症狀感染的情況發生進行模擬，並根據台灣在2009年H1N1新型流感的疫情數據進行模擬，從分析的結果發現，傳染病本身的傳染力及群眾間的接觸率也會大幅影響疫情的發展，疫情發生的早期階段進行管制措施及疫苗接種的成效最好。本篇的傳染病模型也適用於其他傳染病的研究。

關鍵字

系統動力學 ； 倉室模型 ； 流行性感冒 ； H1N1

並列摘要

With the trend of globalization, large-scale influenza outbreaks in recent years such as 2005 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu have greatly impacted the world’s health and medical system. Although the governments are now more experienced on diseases prevention than past did, however, to estimate the epidemic accurately and develop appropriate prevention policy is still a necessary and essential duty for the future potential threats.

In this study, a transmission disease model with compartmental model of epidemiology and system dynamics was, established with also considering asymptomatic infections situation. According to data of 2009 (H1N1) epidemic in Taiwan, the validated results of this study showed effectiveness of the built model. The scenario analyses indicated infectious diseases and contact rate might change the system behavior. If we can control and vaccination in the early stages of outbreak, the epidemic will be effectively controlled. Furthermore, this model is also applicable to other infectious diseases by applying the appropriate model parameters.

並列關鍵字

Compartment model ； System dynamics ； influenza ； H1N1

參考文獻

行政院衛生署疾病管制局 (2009). 我國因應流感大流行準備第二期計畫.

衛生署疾病管制局 (2009). H1N1 新型流感的認識與預防.

衛生署疾病管制局 (2009). 流感疫情監測每日摘要 2009年7月2號至10月29號.

衛生署疾病管制局 (2009). 對抗H1N1新型流感Q&A問答手冊.

BRAUER, F. (2010). "General Compartmental Epidemic Models." Chinese Annals of Mathematics, Series B.