台灣縣市主要歲入來源的所得重分配及風險分散效果－panel平滑轉換模型之應用

The Effects of Main Revenue Resources on Income Redistribution and Risk-sharing in Taiwan: An Application of Panel Smooth Transition Model

嚴靖雯(Chin-Wen Yen)

指導教授 ： 吳博欽

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201200771

摘要

本研究以von Hagen and Hepp (2000) 所建構的模型為基礎，採用外生平滑轉換自我迴歸模型，探討台灣精省與財劃法大幅修改之後，亦即1998年至2010年期間，台灣北區、中區和南區等三區域的主要歲入來源（補助及協助收入、統籌分配稅款與自有財源）對所得（或稅收）的風險分散與重分配效果。此外，利用縱橫平滑轉換迴歸模型，針對台灣整體23個縣市，探討主要歲入來源對各地區所產生的風險分散與重分配的影響，並評估在不同狀態下效果是否不同。

　　實證結果顯示：就台灣各區而言，在補助及協助收入方面，中區在高狀態時，有良好的稅收重分配效果，其餘各區而對所得的風險分散效果與對所得和稅收重分配效果均顯著為正，又以南區在低狀態時稅收重分配影響最大；而統籌分配稅款在北區和南區的所得重分配與南區的稅收重分配效果皆顯著為正，又以南區與平均稅收的差異幅度最大，其餘在不同狀態間將會有不同的效果；在自有財源方面，南區對所得和稅收的風險分散效果顯著為負，在低狀態時對稅收風險分散表現最為良好，此外，各區對於所得與稅收重分配效果皆顯著為正，又以對稅收重分配的影響較為嚴重，最後中區對所得風險和北 區對稅收風險均在高狀態時有分散風險的效果，而低狀態時有增加風險之疑慮，又以北 區的稅收風險最為嚴重。

　　就全台23縣市而言，除了補助及協助收入與統籌分配稅款的風險分散模型為線性模型外，其餘皆為非線性模型，顯示利用線性模型評估此兩效果並不妥當。補助及協助收入所產生的稅收風險分散及重分配效果均顯著為負，而對所得重分配的效果雖為負，但重分配效果較不明顯，其轉換速度非常大，表示容易受外在訊息所影響，非常敏感。此外，以稅收衡量的統籌分配稅款，其風險分散與重分配效果顯著為正，效果也相當明顯。

關鍵字

補助及協助收入 ； 統籌分配稅款 ； 自有財源 ； 縱橫平滑狀態轉換迴歸模型

並列摘要

This study first employs smooth transition autoregressive with exogenous (STARX) model to evaluate the income (or tax revenues) risk sharing effects and redistribution effects of main revenue resources (including grants, centrally-allotted tax revenues, and self-financing resources), based on the models constructed by von Hagen and Hepp (2000). To perform the empirical study, we use the counties/cities in three different regions of Taiwan during 1998-2010 as sample objects. This period is especially important, because Taiwan has implemented the policy of downsizing the provincial government since 1998, and has amended the Act of Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures in the following year. In addition, we apply panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models to explore the risk sharing and redistribution effects of the main revenue resources for the 23 counties/cities of Taiwan, and to assess whether the effects vary with time and across county/city.

The empirical results include: (1) in terms of grants, the redistribution effect of tax revenues is significant for the counties/cities in the central region of Taiwan; however, the redistribution effects of income and tax revenues and the risk sharing effect of income in the remaining regions are significantly positive, especially for the redistribution effects of tax revenues in the southern region; (2) regarding the centrally-allotted tax revenues, the redistribution effects of income in the northern and southern regions, and the redistribution effects of tax revenues in the southern regions are significantly positive, especially for the redistribution effects of tax revenues in the southern region; (3) with respect to self-financing resources ratio, the risk sharing effects of income and tax revenues in the southern region are significantly negative; however, the redistribution effects of income and tax revenues in all regions are significantly positive.

Regarding the estimation results of PSTR models, except for the risk sharing models with grants and centrally-allotted tax revenues as transfer policies, the remaining models display a nonlinear form. That is these models need to be estimated by nonlinear models. In addition, the risk sharing and redistribution effects of tax revenues with respect to grants are significantly negative; however, the redistribution effect of income is insignificantly negative. Finally, the risk sharing and redistribution effects of tax revenues in terms of centrally-allotted tax revenues are significantly positive.

並列關鍵字

Grants ； STARX Model ； Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model ； Self-Financing Resource Ratio ； Centrally-Allotted Tax Revenues

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