支持向量機與遺傳演算法應用於水庫即時操作

Real-Time Reservoir Operation Using Support Vector Machines with Genetic Algorithm

吳俊宏(Chun-Hung Wu)

指導教授 ： 王安培

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2013.00368

摘要

本研究主要探討如何在颱風造成之洪水期間求得水庫放水量使水庫本體安全、下游不因水庫放水而使河川水位過高、颱風過後水庫儘可能達到滿水位。因此，正確的水庫操作顯得非常重要。
本研究利用民國 85 至 99 年間颱風侵台時期之資料，以石門水庫、水庫上游集水區及下游新海大橋為研究區域。首先以支持向量機（Support Vector Machines, 簡稱 SVM）結合遺傳演算法（Genetic Algorithm, 簡稱 GA）以推估石門水庫未來 4 小時可能發生的入流量；接著以支持向量機結合遺傳演算法分析水庫洩洪時對下游新海橋水位增量之影響;最後使用模糊決策分析（Fuzzy Decision Analysis）求得洪水時期水庫放流量，達到水庫操作，以供石門水庫即時操作之參考。

關鍵字

水庫操作 ； 模糊決策 ； 遺傳演算法 ； 支持向量機

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to estimate reservoir drainage for keeping reservoir safe during typhoon period. For dam safe, avoiding flood and maintaining water resource, it is very important to find out optimum reservoir operation.
The invading typhoon data in 1996 to 2010 is collected; Shihmen reservoir, its watershed and downstream Hsinhai Bridge are taken as research area. A “rainfall-runoff” model was developed to estimate Shihmen reservoir inflows for four-steps ahead prediction of hourly rainfall by using Support Vector Machines（SVM）and Genetic Algorithm(GA). Next, the water stage increments of the river due to reservoir drainage are analyzed. Finally, Fuzzy Decision Analysis is used to determine the drainage of reservoir during flood period. It is recommended that this paper can be used for online reservoir operation in the future.

並列關鍵字

Reservoir operation ； Genetic Algorithm ； Fuzzy Decision ； Support Vector Machines

參考文獻

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