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  • 學位論文

英文入學測驗的貝氏分析

Bayesian Analysis for the English Entrance Examination

指導教授 : 鄭子韋

摘要


項目反應理論是近年來常使用的測驗理論,項目反應理論可分為二元計分模 型和多元計分模型。本研究利用三種二元計分模型,針對中原大學102年剛入學之大學新鮮人所做的英文測驗,參與本次考試的共有3138位學生,所分析的試題皆為選擇題。 此模型又細分為一參數模型、二參數模型和三參數模型。分析項目反應 理論中參數估計是重要的事,一參數模型主要討論難度參數,二參數模型是鑑別度參數,三參數模型是猜測參數。 運用馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅 (MCMC) 技術並結合貝氏方法來估計項目反應理論中的參數,本研究使用 OpenBUGS 軟體,模擬多次後取後段穩定狀態下的平均估計值,針對估計出來的值,作試題上的分析與解釋。

並列摘要


In recent years, Item Response Theory (IRT) is a contemporary developmentin modern test theory. There are two types of IRT models dealing with dichotomous scoring and polytomous scoring data. In this paper, three dichotomous scoring models are used to analyze the data from the English test of 2013 freshmen class at Chung Yuan Christian University. There are 3138 students participating in the examination. It includes forty-eight multiple choice items. One-parameter model, two-parameter model, and three-parameter are considered appropriate for dichotomous scoring items. Parameter estimation is importantinIRT.One-parameter model provides estimates of item difficulty only. Twoparameter model provides estimates of discrimination. Three-parameter model refer to as a guessing parameter. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique and Bayesian method are used to estimate the parameters in IRT. In the paper, OpenBUGS software is used. After simulation many times, the averaged value is used to analyze and explain English test result.

並列關鍵字

IRT 1PLM 2PLM 3PLM Bayesian analysis MCMC

參考文獻


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