越南之電力需求與政策

Electricity Demand and Policy in Vietnam

梁璇德(Syen-Tak Luong)

指導教授 ： 林師模 ； 林晉勗

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201900106

摘要

越南自經濟改革以來，經濟快速成長，進而電力需求大量增加，未來電力可能面臨供不應求的窘境。2017年越南宣佈暫停核能發電規劃，並以提高再生能源與化石能源之供應為因應政策；此外，電力價格目前仍由政府調控，未來則會逐步往市場機制調整。
本研究主要探討越南之電力需求與電力政策。在電力需求方面，主要係以自我迴歸分配落遲 (ARDL) 模型，探討越南 1995-2016 年間電力需求、電力價格及經濟成長之間的長、短期關係，再藉由ARDL估計電力需求之價格與所得的長期彈性值與短期動態係數，並同時探討變數間的因果關係。此外，本研究亦以自我迴歸整合移動平均 (ARIMA) 方法預測越南 2021-2030 年的電力需求量，並與政府單位的VII號電力調整規劃之預測比較。綜合電力需求之相關探討，透過檢視越南現行之電力政策規劃，本研究接著提出未來之政策調整建議。
本研究之實證結果發現，越南之電力需求、電力價格與經濟成長間具有長期均衡關係，其電力需求的長期價格彈性為 -0.828，所得彈性則為 2.904。短期方面，電力需求之價格的短期動態係數為 0.12、所得的短期動態係數則為 -0.14，而短期調整速度為 10.6%。因果關係檢定的結果顯示，越南電力需求與電力價格及經濟成長均存在雙向之因果關係。另外，本研究的電力需求預測值低於政府單位預計於2021-2030年以滿足7%經濟成長的電力需求預測。綜合以上實證結果，本研究發現越南電力需求對價格之反應雖然不敏感，但是未來當政府逐漸落實讓電力價格由市場供需決定，則不但可以吸引外資投入越南電力市場，亦可減緩電力缺口日益嚴重的問題。

關鍵字

電力需求；電力政策；電力價格；電力預測；經濟成長

並列摘要

Since Vietnam’s economic reform toward a market economy, Vietnam’s economy has grown rapidly. To support the rapid growth, electricity demand has increased significantly as well. In 2017, Vietnam announced a moratorium of nuclear power generation plan and increased renewable energy and fossil energy supply. However, the price of electricity in Vietnam is still regulated by the government.
This paper focuses on Vietnam's electricity demand and power policy. Based on basic demand function, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between Vietnam's electricity demand, electricity price and economic growth from 1995 to 2016. We estimated the long-run price and income elasticities of Vietnam's electricity demand and short-run adjustment coefficient. We also tested the causal relationship between these economic variables. Furthermore, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used to forecast Vietnam's electricity demand for the periods 2021-2030, and the results were compared to the forecasts shown in the Revised Power Master Plan VII for the same periods.
Our empirical results show that Vietnam's electricity demand, electricity prices and economic growth exhibit a long-run equilibrium relationship. In the long-run, price elasticity of electricity demand in Vietnam is -0.828, and income elasticity is 2.904. In the short-run, the adjustment rate is 10.6%. In addition, the results of the causality test indicate that there are bidirectional causal relationships between Vietnam's electricity demand, electricity prices and economic growth. The forecasts for electricity demand in this study is lower than the forecasts of government, which are assumed to meet the demand of 7% economic growth during the periods 2021-2030. In sum, this study finds that although Vietnam's electricity demand is not sensitive to price change during the study periods, implementing policies toward market mechanism is important for Vietnam, as it does not only can attract foreign investment but also can slow down the power shortage that might happen in the near future.

並列關鍵字

Electricity demand ； electricity policy ； electricity price ； electricity forecasting ； economic growth

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