有關於國產品與進口品之選擇決策,過去主要以Armington (1969, 1970)利用不完全替代假設,追求成本極小化之目標,進行產品消費數量之選擇。本研究將這種以價格為主之決策方法,稱之為「價格導向」選擇行為。對於單純以「價格導向」之Armington 決策模式,在近期的研究中,已陸續提到價格並非國產品與進口品決策之唯一標準;Rigoberto(2005)的研究指出,在考慮貿易保護政策下,國產品與進口品之選擇行為將不適用Armington 之假設。 Benjamin (2000)及Mark(2004)更提出,在真實的經濟環境中,生產者會依其客戶之契約條件,指定特定國家及品牌之要素零件來從事生產,並非遵循Armington 成本極小化假設而決策,此情形將出現高估收益 (過度樂觀)之錯誤預測。再則當消費者有特定的品牌(國家)偏好時,其消費選擇決策亦決不會依.支出極小化來進行。同樣的問題,出現在近期WTO 的研究中,若僅考慮關稅減讓之價格效果,而忽略政府努力宣導及建立優良產品標章(特別是農產品),改變國人對於國產品使用之偏好時,則將過度澎漲WTO 貿易自由化的負面衝擊。 有鋻於此,本研究將參考Benjamin (2000) 及Mark(2004)之研究,在成本中位性(Cost-Neutral)之條件下,延伸出以「偏好導向」之國產品與進口品決策機制。重新刻劃生產者與消費者之產品選擇行為,以明確陳述產品在經濟體系之流動。 研究結果發現:37個產業部門中,偏好進口品產業佔大多數,印證了國產品與進口品的選擇決策不再只是價格導向,也會受偏好之影響。
As to the decision making between domestic and imported goods, Armington (1969, 1970) used the imperfect substitute assumption and considered the object of minimum cost to make the decision of consuming products. We call this kind of decision basing on price as “price-oriented” behavior. For the simply “price-oriented” Armington decision model, it have mentioned in the recent research that price is not the only standard in the decision of domestic and imported goods; Rigoberto(2005)’s research pointed out that considering the trade protection policy, the decision making between domestic and imported goods will not fit the Armington ssumption. Benjamin (2000) and Mark (2004) even indicated that, in the real economic condition, the producer will assign specific country or band’s factor parts to produce good in a basis of the consumer’s contract, instead of following the Armington’s minimum cost assumption, ecause it will occur the biased forecast of high-profitability (over-optimize). Furthermore, when the consumer prefers specific brand/country, he will not follow the assumption of minimum cost either. The same topic appears in the recent WTO research that, if only consider the price effect of reducing Tariff and ignore the changing of domestic goods due to government’s propaganda of superior goods’ brand (especially agricultural products), it will over expand the negative impacts of WTO trade liberalization. Hence, we refer the researches of Benjamin (2000) and Mark (2004), given that Cost-Neutral assumption, derive the “preference-oriented” approaches of the decision making between domestic and imported goods, redefined the choosing behavior between producer and consumer, in order to declare clearly the path of goods in the economic system. In results we find that imported goods are popular. In proof that the decision making between domestic and imported goods not only effect by price but also effect by preference.