探討X公營銀行特別股為手段之標購策略

2000年底，臺灣立法院正式通過「金融機構合併法」，以及2001年6月通過包括「金融控股公司法」在內的修正案，使銀行可以透過組織金融控股公司、合併、或策略聯盟等方式，提供更全面、更便利的金融服務。在這樣金融業整併的環境下，台新金融控股公司於2005年7月以每股新臺幣26.12元，總價365.68億元，成功標下公營X銀行特別股。然而，外界卻一致認為台新金融控股公司之標購價有高估之嫌，因此本研究嘗試利用賽局理論，針對此個案作評價，探討金融控股公司是否真有高估X銀行特別股之價值。其次，觀察金融控股公司在激烈的競爭中，是否因出價過高而出現「贏者的詛咒」現象？同時藉由Pay-offs分析，探討金融控股公司入股X銀行對雙方經營發展的影響。根據本研究實證結果顯示，單純以現金流量折現法評估時，該特別股每股價值19.67元，台新金融控股公司以每股新臺幣26.12元得標，投資價值為負，是不合理的投資行為；但以賽局理論與Pay-offs衡量三家參賽者實質獲益之後，台新金融控股公司卻因為下列理由，成為一個毀譽參半的投資。 (1) 台新金融控股公司標購X銀行特別股後，雖然提高X銀行股東的財富，卻造成台新金融控股公司股東的財富降低。 (2) 與未得標公司比較，台新金融控股公司雖然在競標中勝出，但台新金融控股公司因得標所付出標金較第二名多出13.8%，且造成股價下跌，市值減損幅度超過其他未得標公司，因此呈現「贏者的詛咒」現象。 (3) X銀行因為獲得新臺幣365.68億元資金挹注，促使獲利能力提升，股東財富增加。 (4) 台新金融控股公司與X銀行的合併，總資產突破新臺幣2.3兆元，規模居全台第二，對未來發展極具影響力。

關鍵字

併購；賽局理論；特別股；民營化

並列摘要

At the end of year 2000, the implementation of “Financial Institutions Merger Act” approved by the Taiwan Legislative Yuan as well as the “Financial Holding Company Act” which has been enforced since June, 2001 have allowed banks to provide more thorough and convenient financial services through the organization of financial holding companies, consolidation, strategic alliance and etc. Under the influence of financial reorganization, Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company has successfully taken the bid of preferred stock which was previously owned by a Government owned X Bank at the cost of NT $26.12 per share, thus total amount reaches NT 36.568 billion. Nonetheless, it is suspected by the public that whether Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company has overestimated the stock price. Therefore, this study attempts to evaluate this particular case by adapting Game Theory to determine if the X bank’s preferred stock has been overestimated by Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company. Evidences from this study have shown that the reasonable value of preferred stock estimated is NT $19.67 per share of stock, which suggests a negative net present value in terms of investment. It is apparently an irrational purchase. However, if evaluated by Game Theory and Pay-Offs, Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company’s investment has gain or loss under following reasons (1) Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company enhances X Bank’s wealth, but lowers its own wealth. (2) It realizes“Winners curse”after Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company wins the bid. Because it pays 13.8% higher price than the follower bidder, In addition, the company’s stock price also dropped off after the bid. (3) Because of NT 36.568 billion capital input into X Bank’s, its profit and market value are getting better. (4) This merged assets read a total up to NT 2.3 trillion, which ranked No.2 in Taiwan financial market for Tai-Shin Financial Holdings Company.

並列關鍵字

Merge & acquisition ； Game theory ； Preferred stock ； Civilized

參考文獻

12.梁暉昌、葉子嘉(1996)，「賽局理論初探」，哲學與文化，第 33卷第 3期，頁165-179。

3. Boyd, John H, Graham, Stanley L.& Hewitt, R. Shawn. (1993). “Bank Holding Company Mergers with Nonbank Financial Firms: Effects on the Risk of Failure.” Journal of Banking and Finance 17, pp. 43–63

7. Rasmusen, E. (2001), Games and Information, 3rd edition, ISBN:0631215573, 2001, Blackwell publishing.

一、中文部份