應用風險評估在土石流災害之研究

Application of Risk Assessment on Debris Flow Hazard

紀均澤(Chun-Tse Chi)

指導教授 ： 王安培

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2009.00846

摘要

台灣土石流災害嚴重，且目前科技水準仍無法於颱風豪雨期間準確預測未 來後續降雨情形，因此預警效果有限，致使土石流災害不斷，故土石流方面的 相關預測以及災害防制值得繼續研究。 土石流之發生在水文及地文因子上皆有其不確定性。模糊理論對處理「不 精確」 、 「含糊」的問題特別具有效力，因此本研究應用模糊理論，建立土石流 危險度的分析模式。先選取溪床平均坡度、形狀因子、地質特性作為土石流發 生的潛在因子，並以降雨強度及累積雨量等水文資料為激發因子，利用層級分 析程序法來決定因子間的權重，再以模糊綜合評判方法，判斷土石流發生的可 能性。 危險度分析後，進一步預估土石流發生規模。利用類神經網路建立一「降 雨—逕流」模式，以逕流量大小來判斷土石流發生規模，逕流量越大，所夾帶 的土石也會較多。最後再由風險的概念，以土石流發生的可能性以及嚴重性， 進行風險評估。

關鍵字

模糊理論 ； 土石流 ； 風險評估

並列摘要

Disaster caused by debris flow is a very serious issue in Taiwan, and current
technology standard of typhoon is still incapable of predicting the follow-up rainfall
accurately. It would result in not only the limited efficacy of the advanced warning
system, but also increasing the frequency of debris flow consequently since the
inaccuracy of current technology standard of typhoon has not been improved.
Therefore, it could be stated that the research in the advanced warning system of
debris flow is a critical issue to study in Taiwan.
Due to the uncertainty of both hydrological and geological factors of debris flow,
fuzzy theory would be adopted in this research since fuzzy theory is effective to
analyze the uncertainty issues. A model based on fuzzy theory would be established
in this study in order to estimate the risk degree of debris flow. There are three factors,
the mean slope, the form factor of basin and the geologic character, which would be
selected as latency factors. Rainfall intensity and the amount of accumulated rainfall
would be selected as stimulating factors. The Analytic Hierarchy Process would be
adopted to determine the weights among those factors; and the fuzzy Synthetic
decision method would be utilized to estimate the risk degree of debris flow.
After the analysis of the risk degree of debris flow, a “rainfall-runoff” model
would be build to predict the scale of debris flow by using Artificial Neural Network.
Finally, the risk assessment would be proceeded by applying the concept of risk, the
probability and the scale of debris flow would be taken into consideration in this part
as well.

並列關鍵字

debris flow ； risk assessment ； fuzzy theory

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