辨識汽車供應鏈風險減緩策略

Identification of Risk Mitigation Strategies in an Automotive Industry Supply Chain

陳素媚(Amy Chen)

指導教授 ： 黃惠民

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/博士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500487

摘要

自然災害和人為災難在過去十年中顯著地上升，2011年泰國洪水災禍及日本北部不可預期的海嘯和核電洩漏災難，對亞太和北美的汽車製造商造成巨大的財務損失暨顧客滿意度下降。為了克服不確定性災害的增加，研究辨識汽車供應鏈風險之減緩策略是刻不容緩的。本研究以汽車產業個案探討，目的是為可能發生的災難減少損失。
透過個案研究汽車公司管理團隊的深入探討，強調兩個造成損失的重要關鍵原因。第一主因為工廠共用單一模具以支援亞太區域之汽車零組件，第二主因是區域性的低效率溝通。採購策略被辨識為災難發生前防範共用單一零組件模具所發生的風險。最佳採購策略以加權多目標規劃（WGP）和優先目標規劃（PGP）模型檢視選擇多重供應商之採購策略(顧及品質、交期效率、成本、安全及風險指數等指標)以降低災害的損失。物流策略則是減緩複雜汽車供應鏈第二主因發生的風險。物流策略第一步驟以流程圖定義該區域供應鏈實體、連結、物料流程及作業時間，第二步驟則以計劃評核技術（PERT）模型檢視風險減緩策略降低災害發生的成本，提出使企業快速恢復的建議方案。並以敏感度分析提供汽車產業如何在供應鏈發生不可預期災難時，權衡物流作業時間及成本。未來的研究方向也適用於其他產業。

關鍵字

物流策略 ； 風險 ； 減緩策略 ； 採購策略 ； 供應鏈管理

並列摘要

Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters have significantly increased over the past decades. The flood in Thailand and the unexpected tsunami/nuclear leak disaster that hit northern Japan in 2011 have resulted in huge financial losses and a decline in customer satisfaction in the car manufacturing industries in Asia Pacific and North America. To overcome the increasing uncertainty of these disasters, a study to identify the risk mitigation strategies for an automotive industry is timely. Our objective is to take an automotive industry for example to reduce the losses due to possible disasters.
Two key root causes of the losses are highlighted through the target automotive company management team deep dove. The first reason is single tooling source shared by several manufacturers, the second reason is due to the inefficient communication in the region. The sourcing policy is identified to prevent the risks incurred by tooling source shared in the region. The optimal sourcing policy for selecting multiple suppliers (considering quality, delivery efficiency, costs, security and risk index) to reduce the impact of disasters is derived using the weighted multi-goal programming (WGP) and preemptive goal programming (PGP) models. The logistics strategy for the complex automotive industry is to mitigate the risks for the second issue. The first step of logistics strategy is mapping process which is used to define supply chain entities, links, material’s flow, operating time, and logistic costs, the second step is to select the risk mitigation strategies to reduce the costs caused by the disasters, and suggest actions to enable enterprises to quickly recover the impact of the disasters using program evaluation and review technique (PERT) model. Sensitivity analysis on the trade-off of time and logistics costs under different scenarios provides enterprise insights on how to respond to the unpredictable catastrophe that may happen in the automotive supply chain. Future research can be done for other industries using a similar process.

並列關鍵字

Risks ； Mitigation strategy ； Sourcing ； Supply chain management

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