外生衝擊下菲律賓製造業之策略行為

Strategic Behavior of Philippine Manufacturing Industry in Response to Exogenous Shocks

狄美(Janina-Mae-Almirez Diaz)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201400930

摘要

本研究採用多國產業關聯表來探討當日本311震災此類國外重大災害發生時，會對菲律賓經濟造成多大影響，並將該國可能的經濟損失與亞洲鄰國比較。若菲律賓製造業子部門的經濟損失大於其他國家則意謂著該部門具有經濟脆弱性 (sectoral vulnerabilities)。本研究估算結果相當接近真實數據，估算誤差在可接受範圍，這表示產業關聯分析 (input output analysis) 有助於預估各部門的可能經濟損失、探討部門之經濟脆弱性程度、及評估各國彼此間的經濟依賴程度。所以，公私部門決策者可在重大災害發生後，利用產業關聯分析模擬可能發生之經濟衝擊效果，據以制定應變策略。
本文估算結果顯示，當日本311震災發生，對亞洲各國經濟都造成一定的負面影響，按照國家經濟損失比率(percentage of output loss)由大到小排列，國家順序為：菲律賓、新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、台灣、韓國、中國、印尼、美國。若比較所有部門的產值損失，以絕對值 (部門產值損失) 來看，「電力、機械設備製造業 (electrical machinery sector)」 的經濟損失最大；若以比率值 (部門產值損失/總產出) 來看，是「除電力、機械之外的設備製造業 (machinery except electrical)」及「其他製造業 (other manufacturing products)」受到的衝擊最嚴重。最不受影響的部門則有「食品、飲料及菸草製造業 (food, beverage and tobacco)」和「石油及其製品業 (petroleum and petro products)」不論是以絕對值或以比率值來看。就研究結果顯示，菲律賓對國外的經濟依賴程度相當高，一旦國外發生事故易造成該國經濟重大衝擊，建議向鄰國馬來西亞、印尼和泰國學習，並進一步探討如何強化它脆弱性高的部門。

關鍵字

亞洲產業關聯表 ； 投入產出分析 ； 菲律賓製造業 ； 日本東北大地震

並列摘要

This study was conducted to quantify the inter-industry transmission effects of the Tohoku earthquake on the Philippines, and compare the country’s estimated economic losses to those of its Asian neighbors. It also aims to reveal sectoral vulnerabilities in the Philippine manufacturing industry. The simulation results are fairly close to actual data, indicating that input output analysis is reliable in predicting economic losses, sectoral vulnerabilities, and dependencies of countries with each other, so that governments and the private sector may have insights on how they should prepare for exogenous shocks.
From largest to smallest percentage of output loss, the countries can be listed in this order: Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, China, Indonesia, and USA. The greatest output and GDP losses were estimated for the electrical machinery sector as measured in dollar value. Measured in percentage, the greatest output losses were estimated for machinery except electrical, and other manufacturing products. The least output losses measured in both percentage and dollar value were estimated for food, beverage and tobacco, and petroleum and petro products. The Philippines should learn from the countries which showed economic resilience, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, and should explore ways on how to strengthen its vulnerable sectors.

並列關鍵字

Tohoku earthquake ； Philippine manufacturing ； input output analysis ； Asian input-output table

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