- 學位論文
大規模風光發電對台電系統備用容量率之影響分析
Impact Analysis of Large Scale Wind and PV Power Installations on Taipower System Generation Reserve
摘要
依據新政府所規劃之我國2025年再生能源發電比例要達20%的政策，未來可預期大量再生能源的併網。大量風力發電和太陽光電併入電力系統，除對短期電力調度造成衝擊與影響外，也會影響長期整體電力供需之規劃。 本研究分為兩部份，第一部份提出計算出再生能源發電之容量價值的方法；第二部份為建立台灣發電系統可靠度分析模型，其中再生能源的發電量係採用本研究所發展的方法，再據此發電系統可靠度模型評估台灣在不同情境下的發電系統可靠度。分析在不同情境下之電力結構方案，包括評估各個情境於2015年~2025年期間的系統備用容量率、缺電機率、預期缺電量等。 本研究考量在不同再生能源情境下的電源組合，將政府所公佈的再生能源發展計畫納入至發電系統可靠度分析模擬中，作為台灣未來擬訂再生能源併網規模之重要參考。
並列摘要
According to the new government’s policy of 2025 renewable energy in power system should reach 20%, obviously, there will be a large scale renewable energy integrated into the power system. A large scale of wind and PV generation will effect the power distribution in short term and influence the supply and demand of full power system in long term. The thesis contains two parts: we propose a calculation method at first for the renewable energy’s capacity credit; secondly, we developed analysis model for reliability of power system in Taiwan. Applying this method, we obtained the result of capacity credit of wind and PV generation; furthermore, we evaluated the reliability of generation system under the different number of renewable source combination in Taiwan on the basis of the model we designed for the thesis. We analyzed the power structure program under different circumstances of renewable capacity according to the policy of government, including reserve capacity of system, and the system reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE), of each program from 2015 to 2025. Taking into account different kinds of renewable capacity in power source combination, we brought the new energy policy proclaimed by the government into the analysis and simulation of reliability of power generation system as an important reference for planning the large scale of renewable energy in Taiwan for the future.