金融與產業發展之關聯性及變因探討：附加價值觀點與跨國比較

在全球化趨勢下，國際貨品及服務的交易日趨活絡，金融服務貿易也逐漸增長，WTO 的統計資料顯示，目前金融服務貿易額已約占全球服務貿易額的三分之一。本研究係在全球產業關聯的架構下，應用附加價值貿易之觀點，探討2000至2014 年各國產業出口與其金融服務附加價值含量間的關係，再進一步利用結構分解分析造成此一關係在2000~2014 年間變化的原因，並進行跨國比較。本研究主要分析亞洲地區的台灣、中國大陸、日本、韓國及歐美地區的美國、德國、法國及英國等八個國家，探討的產業主要則為食品加工業、紡織業、化學及化學製品業及電腦及光學設備業。研究之結果顯示，中國大陸之全產業總出口毛額及出口毛額中之金融服務業附加價值含量都呈現大幅度成長，2014 年金融服務業附加價值含量占總出口毛額之比率已遠超其他國家排名全球第二，美國排名第三，而第一則為世界金融中心的英國。另外，結構分解分析的結果顯示，2000 至2014 年金融服務業附加價值含量占總出口毛額比率成長幅度前三名為中國大陸、美國、英國，日本和德國則呈現負成長；而增加的國家中，出口毛額增加是最主要的驅動力，其次則為反映技術變動的Leontief 逆矩陣的變化。在個別產業的分析方面，開發中國家的產業出口成長與金融服務附加價值含量間的相關係數高，代表金融服務對促進產業發展的貢獻度高，而已開發國家由於金融發展相對上都已較為成熟，其對產業發展的貢獻度已不是那麼顯著。

關鍵字

多國投入產出模型；附加價值貿易；金融服務；結構分解

並列摘要

Globalization has stimulated further the world trade in goods and services,including financial services, over the past decades. WTO statistics indicate that the amount of financial service trade has accounted for around one third of world service trade now. This thesis applies the concept of value-added trade within the international inter-industry framework to analyze the relationship between exports and embodied financial value-added of the industries for the period 2000 to 2014.Structural decomposition analysis is also used to examine the major factors contributing to the change of the relationship between 2000 and 2014. Cross-country comparisons of the results, however, are made mainly for Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea, USA, Germany, France, and UK.Our results show that China’s total gross exports and the financial value-added embodied in exports have grown significantly during the study periods. In 2014, its ratio of embodied financial value-added to gross exports ranked second in the world, only next to the UK. Between 2000 and 2014, China, the USA and the UK were the top three countries with positive growth in the ratio of embodied financial value-added to gross exports, while Japan and Germany had negative growth. For those countries with positive growth, increase in the level of exports contributed the most to the growth of the ratios, followed by the change of technology measured by the Leontief inverse. For individual industries, developing countries reveal a high correlation between industrial exports and embodied financial value-added, indicating that the development of financial services did have promoted the growth of industrial sectors. Conversely, similar results are not found for developed countries, as these countries are relatively mature economies and the room has become limited for financial services to play significant role in industrial development.