應用系統模擬探討大眾運輸系統之效益 — 以公車捷運系統(BRT)為例

Applying system simulation to explore the benefits of mass transit system— take the bus rapid transit system (BRT) as an example

陳建翔(Jian-Xiang Chen)

指導教授 ： 邱裕方

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202000827

摘要

近年來全球面臨經濟快速發展、人口不斷增加、地球環境汙染越來越嚴重之情況下，近而影響氣候變遷及溫室效應的發生，迫使各國積極尋找永續且低汙染的運輸系統替代方案，以解決汙染日益嚴重的問題。台灣積極發展大眾運輸系統的浪潮下，必須考量到此系統的發展是否能與當地的地理環境共存。而台灣地狹人稠，該如何有效運用狹小的土地，且以最快最符合經濟效益的運輸方案，已成為台灣發展大眾運輸系統之重要課題。
本研究將以發展快速且低成本的公車捷運系統(BRT)作為主要探討對象，並且利用Arena系統模擬搭配當地的搭車情況進行模擬與分析，並以成本效益分析(CBA)及敏感度分析之相關模型，探討公車捷運系統(BRT)的建設是否符合當地發展之經濟效益。
根據本研究結果顯示若將桃園1路公車更改為公車捷運系統，需將平均等候時間降低至1.85分鐘且平均服務時間降低至5.361分鐘，才符合公共運輸建設之經濟效益之可行性，其成本項中的建設總成本之差異值為604,000,000元、企業總成本各期差異值之現值為357,233,126元，在效益項中的時間節省效益、行車成本節省效益以及碳排放減少效益加總之差異後所得到得總效益之折現後為1,174,541,018元，經計算後益本比益本比大於1。最後本研究提出未來台灣以發展公車捷運系統(BRT)之有效建議以及系統模擬需改進之處，以提供未來應用系統模擬探討大眾運輸系統發展之參考。

關鍵字

公車捷運系統(BRT) ； 系統模擬 ； 成本效益分析(CBA) ； 敏感度分析

並列摘要

In recent years, the world is facing rapid economic development, a growing population, and increasing global environmental pollution. The recent impact on climate change and the greenhouse effect has forced countries to actively seek alternatives to sustainable and low-pollution transportation systems. In the wave of Taiwan's active development of the mass transit system, whether the development of this system can coexist with the local geographic environment must be considered. However, Taiwan has a narrow and dense population, how to effectively use the narrow land and the fastest and most economical transportation solution has become an important issue for the development of Taiwan's mass transportation system.
This study will take the development of fast and low-cost bus rapid transit system (BRT) as one of the tools for investigation, and use Arena system simulation to match with local riding conditions for simulation and analysis, and use cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and sensitivity analysis to explore whether the construction of the bus rapid transit system (BRT) is in line with the economic benefits of local development.
According to the results of this study, if Taoyuan bus route 1 is changed to a bus rapid transit system, the average waiting time needs to be reduced to 1.85 minutes and the average service time to 5.361 minutes in order to meet the feasibility of the economic benefits of public transportation construction. And in the cost item, the difference of total construction costs is NT$ 604,000,000, and the present value of the difference of the total cost per period the enterprise is NT$ 357,233,126. The discounted total benefit is NT$ 1,174,541,018. After calculation, the benefit-to-benefit ratio is greater than 1.

並列關鍵字

Bus Rapid Transit system (BRT) ； System simulation ； Cost Benefit Analysis(CBA) ； Sensitivity analysis

參考文獻

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