地主國國家風險對於連續投資區位選擇之影響-以台灣廠商對外投資為例

近年來，由於台灣的經濟快速起飛、人力成本的高漲與政治情勢的不穩定，對於廠商而言，對外投資似乎成為台灣廠商面臨國內與國外壓力下的新選擇。而當廠商進行對外投資決策時，會考慮該地主國所處的風險現況，而不同的風險因素的影響效果也會因為前往投資的產業特性的不同而有所不同。而相較於先前的文獻只探討地主國區位特性與廠商要素稟賦的配適關係，鮮少以地主國風險角度進行探討。本研究針對地主國風險特性來探討其與台灣廠商對外投資的關聯性。本研究利用次級資料之實證研究方式，探討地主國國家風險對於台灣廠商對外投資區位選擇之影響。利用ICRG國家風險資料庫所公布的風險資料與經濟部投資審議委員會的廠商投資資料進行迴歸分析。本研究針對台灣廠商對外投資資料作為實證分析的對象，研究期間為1987年到2007年，橫跨21年的國家風險資料與投資行為。採用STATA統計軟體，進行實證分析得到以下結論: 1.地主國風險平均值與台灣廠商對外投資行為具有顯著影響-當地主國政府清明度、社會安定及國家金融狀態均值較好時，台灣廠商會優先前往該地區進行投資。 2.地主國風險變化趨勢與台灣廠商對外投資行為具有顯著影響-當地主國政府效能、社會安定、國家經濟與國家金融變化趨勢具有好轉趨勢時，台灣廠商會優先前往該地區進行投資。 3.地主國風險特性與產業特性間的關聯性並沒有顯著差異性-僅有在地主國政府清明度變化趨勢上，服務業相較於製造業而言，較著重在該項因素上。而其他的地主國風險因素與產業關係並沒有顯著的差異性。因此，本研究建議當台灣廠商進行對外投資時，不僅僅要考慮廠商自身所具備的優勢與地主國所具有的區位特性，也必須將地主國風險特性加入探討，以確保在進行對外投資時，廠商不會蒙受太大的損失與風險。

關鍵字

區位選擇；地主國風險特性；順序羅吉斯迴歸模型

並列摘要

Because of the increasing of Taiwan economy, the higher labor cost and the instability of policy, foreign direct investment has become a new choice for Taiwan’s firm when they face the push power from domestic country and the pull power from oversea. When firms decide to take FDI, they may consider the host country’s risk situation and the effects of different risk will be affected by different kinds of industry. Compared to the previous literatures which only focused on location advantage of the host country but rarely taking host country risk into account. this research focus on the relationship between the specific risks of the host country and Taiwan firm’s investment oversea. This research is based on secondary data to discuss how the risk condition of host country influences the FDI location choices of Taiwan firm. This research uses the data from ICRG (international country risk guide) and the firm’s FDI behaviors from Investment Commission of Ministry of Economic affair, R.O.C analyzed by the rank-order logistic regression. The period of research spanned from 1987 to 2007 and this research used STATA statistics software to carry out the empirical analysis and obtain the following conclusions: 1.The risk average of host country can significantly affect Taiwan firm’s FDI:The incorruptibility, social stability, economy of host country have better performances, Taiwan firms prefer to invest these countries earlier. 2.The risk trend of host country can significantly affect Taiwan firm’s FDI: The government efficiency, social stability, economy and financial situation of host country become better, Taiwan firm prefer to invest these countries earlier. 3.Under host country risk, the types of industries have no significant moderating effect: Only when servicing industries take more care about the trend of the host country incorruptibility than manufacturing industries. Other risk factors not significant supported. So this research suggests that when firm take FDI oversea, they should not only take the firm’s advantage and the host country location advantage into account, but also take the host country risk into account. By doing this, firm can avoid taking too much losses and risks.