證券分析師的股票推薦是否能衡量投資人情緒 -以台灣科技類股為例

本研究以台灣 50 及台灣中型 100 的科技類股作為分析樣本、市場週轉率作為投資人情緒的衡量變數、Google Trends 數據作為網路聲量衡量變數輔助解釋投資人情緒，探討在科技類股的分析師股票推薦、推薦性質及推薦一致性對投資人情緒的影響。結果發現分析師的股票推薦對投資人情緒為顯著影響，釋出的分析師股票推薦愈多，投資人情緒愈樂觀，惟負面推薦對投資人情緒不顯著，可能原因: (1)在市場悲觀時，投資人買賣決策會較分歧，會有持續持有、賣出止賠、低點買進等看法，投資人決策較無特定的行為模式。(2)負面報導較不吸引投資人注意，投資人喜歡將注意力放在好消息上，忽略壞消息。另外，網路聲量與投資人情緒為負相關，無法完全代表投資人情緒。最後，關於分析師推薦報導的一致性，結果顯示與投資人情緒無相關性。

關鍵字

證券分析師；股票推薦；投資人情緒；分析師推薦一致性

並列摘要

This paper uses Taiwan 50 and Taiwan mid-cap 100 technology stocks as analysis samples, uses the stock market turnover rate as a variable of investor sentiment, and uses Google Trends data as a variable of Internet. We explore the impact of analysts' stock recommendations and investor sentiment in the market. The results show that analysts' recommendations have a significant impact on investor sentiment. The more stock recommendations released, the more optimistic investor sentiment is. However, negative recommendations have no significant impact on investor sentiment. Possible reasons: (1) If the market is pessimistic, the investors' buying and selling decisions will be divergent, investors' decision-making has no specific behavior pattern. (2) Negative reports are less attractive to investors. Investors like to focus on good news and ignore bad news. In addition, Internet volume is negatively correlated with investor sentiment, which cannot represent investor sentiment. Finally, regarding the consistency of analyst recommendation reports, the results show no correlation with investor sentiment.