企業在衡量市場風險時,一般最被廣泛使用的方法即為風險值。而風險值也已經成為一個重要的風險衡量工具。近年來,風險值也被應用在衡量非金融企業所面臨的風險。在以風險值所為基礎下,現金流量風險值被提出。用以對企業未來特定時點的現金流量的機率分配進行預測。現行計算現金流量風險值的方法,不是只考量市場變動下的現金流量,就是完全忽略市場風險的曝險情況。本文使用曝險基礎現金流量風險值法衡量東南亞八國製造業、消費性產業和其他產業中,企業所面臨的市場風險,並加以量化。本文亦以變異數-共變數法、Panel-GARCH參數法、極值POT法和POT-Panel-GARCH法等四種不同的方法衡量並比較現金流量風險值,期望使投資者了解不同國家產業的市場風險情況。企業風險管理者也能依其企業風險策略的不同,選擇不同的衡量方法進行風險控管。本文發現曝險基礎現金流量風險值法所衡量出的風險值較為適中
Value at Risk (VaR) is a popular measure of market risk and it became a key measure of market risk. In the resent year, VaR is applied to non-financial corporation. CashFlow-at-risk method is proposed to predict the probability of the cash flow of company in the future. Existing approaches to calculating CFaR either only focus on cash flow conditional on market changes or neglect market-risk exposures entirely. We use the exposure-based CFaR to measure the market risk to non-financial corporation in manufacturing industry, consuming industry and other industry of South-East Asian countries. Then we use four different approach to measure CFaR and compare it. We find the exposure-based CFaR is more moderate approach.