以系統動態學探討台灣馬拉松運動之發展模式

馬拉松運動在台灣歷史已經悠久，隨著路跑運動之興起，馬拉松運動的市場態勢亦有所變化。台灣馬拉松運動在此背景下，已成為馬拉松人口密度全球第一的國家，其成功模式值得研究。馬拉松運動發展是一個長期演化的動態過程，受到眾多因素的影響，需要使用具備宏觀與動態處理能力的方法論來探討。本研究以系統動態學方法來探討馬拉松運動發展歷程，先建立質性環路來探究不同階段的發展結構，並建立量化模式進行政策模擬。研究結果顯示馬拉松運動發展其中關鍵的變數包含:跑者、舉辦賽事單位、舉辦賽事能力的部分。模擬結果顯示出馬拉松運動透過政府管制嚴謹與替代運動的興起兩種問題對未來發展有相當程度的影響。

關鍵字

系統動態學；運動發展；馬拉松

並列摘要

The marathon has a long history in Taiwan. Along with the rise of road running movement, the prevalence of this sport in Taiwan increased as well. Notably, Taiwan has become one of the leading countries in terms of population density of Marathon. It is worthwhile to identify the successful model underlying the develop process. The development of marathon is a complex process which involves the influence of many factors. Therefore, it requires a holistic and dynamic methodology to explore. This study explores Marathon development process in Taiwan with the system dynamics methodology. This study identified the causal loop structure which supported the development during different stages and derived a formal model for scenario simulation and policy testing. The results show that the key variables to Taiwan’s marathon development include: the accumulation of runner population and the number as well as its capability of organizations to organize marathon events. The simulation results also indicate the importance of government regulation policies and the challenges of competing sports.