台北市房價變動關鍵因素之實證分析

An Empirical Study on the Key Factors of Housing Price Fluctuations in Taipei City

余建明(Chien-Ming Yu)

指導教授 ： 陳珮芬

共同指導教授 ： 王銘杰(Ming-Chieh Wang)

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/國際企業學系/博士(2018年)

摘要

台灣都會地區房價近十年來房價高漲，亦引發學者對台北市房價飆漲是否因房市政策、低利政策或總體審慎政策因素，係近期歐美日等國家與學者針對房市政策、利率或總體政策在房價角色上之討論。本文研究以台北市逐筆房屋交易資料分為二階段，以第一階段以奢侈稅前後三年，期間為97年6月到103年5月，共8萬餘筆；第二階段以實價登錄後五年，期間為101年7月到106年6月，共5年期間9萬餘筆；針對建物特徵因素、總體經濟因素與房市政策進行分析找出關鍵因素。實證結果發現抑制房價飆漲，只有房貸的實際負擔利率提高，才是打房最重要且有效的工具。當五大行庫房貸利率上調1%，估計可使得每坪房價下修0.1%至18.28%不等。另外，研究結果顯示，奢侈稅對房價的抑制效果有限，房地合一稅對房價有明顯抑制效果，唯實價登錄政策實施後，台北市及各分區房價下修幅度達0.08%至19.78%不等。可知資訊透明化可以導正整體的實價成交價格與房地合一可解決房價過高現象。

關鍵字

特徵價格法 ； 總體因素 ； 奢侈稅 ； 實價登錄 ； 房地合一 ； 房貸利率

並列摘要

Housing prices in the metropolitan areas of Taiwan have increased significantly in the past ten years, leading scholars to question whether the price bubble in Taipei City is due to housing policy, interest rate policy, or macroprudential factors. Based on the housing prices of Taipei City, we divide the data into two phases: 1) the first phase covers a total of over 80,000 transactions within a 3-year period for the period June 2008 to May 2014 before and after a luxury house tax was implemented; 2) the second phase covers the period before and after the implementation of actual price registration, August 2012 to July 2017, for a total of 90,000 transactions. The examination of the key housing factors are based on the analysis of house characteristies, macroeconomic factors, and housing policies. The empirical results show that a rising mortgage rate is the most effective tool to suppress housing prices. I estimate that a 1% increase in the mortgage rate is estimated to decrease the house prices by 0.1% to 18.28%. The results of this study show that the luxury house tax has a limited effect on prices, whereas the integrated house and land tax has a significant inhibitory effect on them. After implementation of the price registration policy, housing prices is estimated to decreases by 0.08% to 19.78%. It indicates that information transparency can help the integration of real-price transactions and the house and land tax to solve the problem of excessive housing prices.

並列關鍵字

Hedonic model ； Macroeconomic factor ； Luxury tax ； Actual price registration ； Housing and land tax ； Mortgage rate

參考文獻

References

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