兩岸直航航空旅運選擇行為之研究: 以台北-上海航線為例

A study on air travelers' choice behavior under direct links from Taipei to Shanghai

廖崇堯(Shung-Yao Liao)

指導教授 ： 周榮昌

共同指導教授 ： 劉佑興(Yu-Hsin Liu)

國立暨南國際大學/科技學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/NCNU.2010.00120

摘要

兩岸直航(direct-links) 在2008年開放兩岸航空直航，使得兩岸之間往來因而更加便利，但後續之相關運輸問題，如機票價格過高與台商返鄉旺季時航班供給不足，以及中國籍航空與國籍航空的競爭等相關的問題也因應而生，因此本研究針對直航航線中最熱門的台北-上海航線進行相關討論，討論旅客對於一般航空(國籍與中國籍航空)與低價航空之選擇以及未來上海虹橋機場開放後於旅客對於上海機場(浦東與虹橋機場)之選擇。本研究利用排序普羅比模式討論兩岸航空滿意度模式，並以二元羅吉特模式、多項羅吉特模式、混合羅吉特模式建構直航旅客對於上海航線之航空公司及機場之選擇模式並以其結果進行彈性分析。研究結果顯示混合羅吉特模式對於直航航線在機場選擇中有較好的配適度，且模式結果發現旅客會較偏好選擇聯外接駁時間較少的機場來做為抵達機場，其次旅客不論在機場選擇或航空公司選擇中皆較偏好考慮選擇能提供每週飛航班次較多的機場與航空公司。因而建議國籍航空公司在航線航班限制下，以航線聯營或艙位共享的營運方式以提供旅客更多的班次選擇服務。在彈性分析部分則顯示未來虹橋機場開放後大部分之旅客會較偏好選擇虹橋機場為接駁抵達機場，且低價航空在加入此航線後也將對於旅客選擇其他一般航空公司造成相當大之影響。

關鍵字

兩岸直航 ； 低價航空 ； 一般航空 ； 機場選擇 ； 排序普羅比模式 ； 二元羅吉特模式 ； 多項羅吉特模式 ； 混合羅吉特模式

並列摘要

The cross-strait direct flights have been opened up with air links in 2008, which allowed more convenient cross-strait contacts. The follow-related transport issues, as high ticket prices and peak season flights for Taiwan business people and insufficient supply, and Chinese aviation and national air of competition-related issues will be occurred. This study has been used with the most popular flights to Taipei - Shanghai route for related discussions. The discussion of the general aviation passengers’ choice (nationality and Chinese aviation) and low-cost airline of choice are considered and it will be considered that Shanghai Hongqiao Airport is opening to the Shanghai Airport (Pudong and Hongqiao Airport) for the visitors. In this study, Ordered Probit Model to discuss cross-strait aviation satisfaction model have been used include the binary logit model, the multinomial logit models and the mixed logit model under the construction of direct passenger flights to Shanghai Airlines and the airport of choice model and elasticity Analysis. The results show that The mixed logit mode choice at the airport for the flights and cheap airline choice model with generally better fit, and passengers prefer to the outside than to connect the airport to take less time for the arrival at the airport. It followed by the airlines in terms of selection or choice of airport, which more passengers’ choice tend to consider the provision of weekly flights to more airports and airlines flights. Therefore, it has been proposed with restrictions on the nationality of airline flights in route, which it may be to adopt the way of joint venture or shared accommodation in order to provide passengers more flights to choose the services. In the part of the elasticity analysis, it is displayed that the Hongqiao airport would preferred to be the connection arrival airport after it is opening for the most tourists, and while the air price is cheap after joining this route, it will be caused lot of influence to other airlines for travelers’ choice.

並列關鍵字

Direct-Links ； LCC ； FCS ； Airport Choices ； Ordered Probit Models ； Binary Logit Model ； Multinomial Logit Model ； Mixed Logit

參考文獻

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