台灣家戶儲蓄行為之變化：分量迴歸之擬真分析

Changes of Taiwan’s Household Saving Behavior: Counterfactual Analysis under Quantile Regression

蔡粧舜(Chuang-Shun Tsai)

指導教授 ： 陳建良

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/NCNU.2009.00177

摘要

台灣的家戶儲蓄率從1980年至2005年間呈現先上升後下降的趨勢，顯示台灣的家戶儲蓄行為在這二十五年期間有顯著的變化。本研究選取1980、1990及2005年行政院主計處家庭收支調查資料，利用分量迴歸 (quantile regression) 透過自體重複抽樣(bootstrapping) 方法來估計儲蓄率函數，並藉由Machado and Mata (2005) 擬真分解的方法分析特性、報酬率及單一家戶特性對於儲蓄率分配的效果。實證結果發現，1980年至1990年期間，儲蓄率高的家戶之儲蓄率有增加的趨勢，儲蓄率低的家戶之儲蓄率則愈趨惡化，1990年至2005年期間，儲蓄率高的家戶和儲蓄率低的家戶皆呈現儲蓄率明顯的下降，造成1990年之後家戶儲蓄率呈現下降的現象；而特性對於儲蓄率分配的影響在這二十五年間有右移的效果，報酬率對於儲蓄率分配的影響則有左移的效果，單一家戶特性方面，家戶規模大小、家庭人口結構的變化對於儲蓄率的改變有明顯增加的效果，至於家戶區域特性及擁屋家戶則造成儲蓄率的下降，但影響的效果不大。

關鍵字

家戶特性 ； 儲蓄率 ； 擬真分解

並列摘要

From 1980 to 2005, the tendency of household saving rate in Taiwan increased　at the beginning and then decreased, indicating that household saving behaviors have had significant changes during these 25 years. The data used in this research was Survey of Family Income and Expenditure database in 1980, 1990 and 2005, from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistic, Executive Yuan. The methodology of quantile regression was employed in this research to estimate the saving rate function, through selecting bootstrapping samples. Furthermore, Machado and Mata (2005) counterfactual decomposition was also used to analyze covariates, coefficients, and single household characteristics affecting saving rate distribution.
The findings of this research were that, during 1980 to 1990, the saving rate from households with high saving rate was tending to increase. On the other hand, the saving rate from households with low saving rate was tending to be worse. Moreover, all households with high and low saving rate had significant drop in saving rate from 1990 to 2005, causing saving rate continue to decrease after 1990.
In addition, saving rate distribution resulting from covariates was moving rightward. However, saving rate distribution affecting by coefficients was moving leftward. Concerning single household characteristics, it can be seen clearly that sizes and population structure of households motivated saving rate upward significantly. Regarding household’s different area features and household with their own house, these two factors caused saving rate to decrease but the influence from these was not very strong.

並列關鍵字

household characteristic ； saving rate ； counterfactual decomposition

參考文獻

參考文獻

一、中文文獻

葉律言 (1991)，「台灣儲蓄率函數的再探討」，逢甲大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。

林武郎、李慶男、王文生、吳啟瑞 (1998)，「台灣儲蓄率下降原因之分析」，行政院經濟建設委員會綜合計畫處，頁247。

楊文靚 (2000)，「家戶組成與儲蓄行為」，淡江產業經濟學研究所碩士論文。