資訊科技產業公司財務危機預警模式之建構

台灣的證劵交易市場藏有許多地雷股，當地雷股發生時對投資人、股東、債權銀行與社會具有極大的影響，若是能及早發現，不但可以減少投資人的損失，政府相關單位就能多注意，公司的管理階層也能儘早改變投資策略來避免破產。本研究著重於財務指標與公司治理，更加入了資訊產業所重視的智慧資本進行研究，研究方法為邏輯斯迴歸，樣本選取以民國88~95年間台灣地區上市上櫃公司，台灣經濟新報(TEJ)所定義的財務危機之資訊產業為主，變數的採用係依據參考過去文獻較具代表性的21個變數，以1:2的方式來進行配對，共選取了58家發生財務危機的公司與116家財務正常的公司進行相同產品的配對。實證結果發現，結合「財務指標」、「公司治理」與「智慧資本」三個構面所建構出的Logistic Model其預測力比個別構面所建構的 Logistic Model來的準確，較顯著的變數為「現金流量比」、「負債比率」、「總資產週轉率」、「總資產報酬率」與「董監質押比」等5個變數，預測準確率在分析樣本為92.13%、驗證樣本為90.12%。

關鍵字

邏輯斯迴歸；公司治理；智慧資本；資訊科技產業；財務危機

並列摘要

There hide a lot of companies which have financial crises in Taiwan Stock Exchange Market. When corporate financial crises occur, they will have large influences on investors, stockholders, lending banks and society. If we can detect them as soon as possible, not only can we reduce the loss of investors and arouse the notice of government institution, but also corporate administrators can early change their strategies to prevent from bankruptcy. This study focuses on financial indicators and corporate governance and it also takes the intellectual capital which information technology industry emphasizes into account. The research method is Logistic Regression. The sample selection is the listed companies of information technology industry in Taiwan from year 1999~2006 by the definition of financial distress in Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ). The variables depend on the more representative 21 variables in the references and match them by the way of 1:2. I select 58 companies with financial distress and 116 companies with sound finance to make a match. The empirical evidence finds that the forecast of three impacts including financial indicators, corporate governance, and intellectual capital to build the Logistic Model is more accurate than individual one. The more significant variables are cash flow ratio, debt ratio, turnover ratio on total assets, return ratio on total assets, and pledged shares ratio. The prediction accuracy is 92.13% on analyzing samples, and 90.12% on testing samples.