再生一個小孩好嗎?-家庭房屋支出與生育行為之探討

台灣生育率在全球排名中敬陪末座。隨著人口逐漸減少, 導致勞動供給減少、勞動成本上升、勞動生產力下降、稅收減少排擠政府各項社會福利及公共建設支出、學校及基礎設施閒置、消費人口減少等因素將使經濟成長減緩乃至於停滯。由家庭收支調查可看出, 家庭房屋支出歷年來都是佔整個家庭中很高的消費比率並且逐年增加。故本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫之1954年至1963年出生的主樣本,探討家庭房屋支出對子女數量的影響, 並以人口密度做為房價的替代變數, 透過最小平方法(OLS)、一般最小平方法(GLS) 及Tobit 迴歸模型估計。結果顯示, 父母親年齡與子女數呈現顯著正相關,父母親教育程度與子女數呈現顯著負相關, 而家庭房屋支出與子女數呈現顯著負向關係。

關鍵字

生育行為；人力資本；家庭房屋支出；人口密度

並列摘要

Taiwanese fertility rate has become the lowest one throughout the world. With falling population over time in Taiwan, the labor supply decreases, labor costs increase, labor productivity reduces, tax revenue and, thus, government expenditure diminish, capital in the forms of education and public facilities is idled away, and aggregated consumption is lowerd. All of these lead to slowing down economic growth or even no growth at all. From Report on the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, housing expenditure has been one of the major components in the average household consumption and has been increasing slightly overtime. With the data of Panel Study of Family Dynamics from 1954-1963, this study employs three different econometrical models, which are Ordinary Least Squares model, Generalized Least Square Method and Tobit Model, to examine the effect of housing expenditure over fertility. The results show that the population density, as a proxy of housing price, has a significantly negative effect, that parental age has significantly positive effect, and that parental education has significantly negative effect over the number of children.