匯率對台灣進出口的影響以中國大陸為例

本研究使用固定效果模型(Fixed effect model)與動態追蹤資料模型(Dynamic Panel GMM)來估計，樣本期間為2006~2014年的年資料，使用財政部貿易統計資料的出口品項64項以及進口品項41項，觀察台灣與中國大陸雙邊實質匯率對於台灣出口與進口的影響。出口方面，匯率對出口量為正的顯著，落後一期的匯率上升(新台幣相對人民幣貶值)使當期出口增加，中國工業生產指數不顯著。進口方面，匯率對進口量為負的顯著，落後一期的匯率上升(新台幣相對人民幣貶值)使當期進口減少，台灣工業生產指數為正的顯著，當期台灣工業生產指數上升會使得進口增加。

關鍵字

匯率；進出口

並列摘要

In this study, fixed effect model and dynamic panel GMM were used to estimate the effect of bilateral real exchange rate on Taiwan’s trade flows to China. The data of 64 export items and 41 import items used in this study was collected from the Ministry of Finance trade statistics during 2006 to 2014. With regard to exports, exchange rate shows positive and significant relationship, meaning that the increase in previous period exchange rate (NT depreciates against RMB) leads to an increase in current period exports. Additionally, China’s industrial production index has no significant effect on Taiwan’s exports. As for imports, results show significant negative relationship with exchange rate, as in the increase in previous period exchange rate will leads to the decrease in current period import. Taiwan’s industrial production index also shows positive significant relationship with imports, hence the increase in production index will leads to the increase in imports from China.