2006~2008年瓊斯盃籃球賽中華男子隊攻守技術分析

An Analysis of the Offense and Defense Techniques of

賴俊明

指導教授 ： 黃長福

國立臺灣師範大學/運動與休閒學院/體育學系在職進修碩士班/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本研究的目的為了解2006~2008年瓊斯盃籃球賽中華男子隊在三屆比賽中攻守技術表現與其他各國代表隊的差異情形。研究樣本採用中華國籃球協會所提供的攻守統計資料，勝負與得分為效標變項，17個攻守技術統計資料為預測變項，以描述性統計、獨立樣本t考驗、皮爾遜積差相關與多元逐步廻歸分析進行統計分析。結果發現：勝場與敗場的表現中，三分球投中數、二分球命中率、籃板總數、阻攻的差異達顯著性；與三屆冠軍隊的比較後，中華男子隊在與強隊對戰時，除了減少失分，並且維持得分數在83分以上，將會有更高的勝率；利用多元逐步廻歸分析發現中華男子隊的表現以阻攻最具預測力，其次為二分球命中率；而增加三分球的使用質量是世界趨勢。

關鍵字

勝負 ； 勝率 ； 使用質量

並列摘要

This thesis is to examine how Chinese Taipei Basketball Men’s Team differed from the other participants from abroad in their offense and defense techniques in the Jones’ Cup Basketball Tournament of 2006-08. The research samples are taken from the offense-defense statistics offered by Basketball Association of the R.O.C., with the win-loss record as a criterion and 17 statistical data of offense-defense techniques as a predictor. The research carried out a statistical analysis of these data by adopting a variety of methods, such as descriptive statistics, completely randomized design students’ t-test, K. Pearson product-moment correlation, and stepwise regression analysis. The results are as follows. In wins and losses, the variation of the three pointers made, 2-point field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocks played a prominent role. Compared with the champion teams of those three years, Chinese Taipei, when pitted against a strong team, would have a higher win probability if they gave away fewer points and maintained their score at 83 above. Thanks to the stepwise regression analysis, the research have found that blocks made, among the performance of Chinese Taipei as well as of all the other teams, are the most decisive factors,second is 2-point field goal percentage, which correspond with a worldwide trend to increase the quantity and quality of 3-pointers.

並列關鍵字

win-loss record ； win probability ； quantity and quality

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