日本職棒選秀成效之研究

棒球新人選秀為體壇最熱門的話題，也影響各球隊戰力的變化，日本職棒近年也因許多臺灣球員前往挑戰和發展因此得到不少國內棒球觀眾的關注，但國內目前仍缺少以量化觀點評估日本職棒選秀的相關研究。本研究旨在分析日本職棒選秀歷年的趨勢變遷與成果，日本職棒除了每年10月的新人選秀會挑選新人加入外，會於新人選秀完後繼續辦理育成選手選秀又稱為二次選秀，日本業餘球員每年以這兩次的選秀為主要進入日職殿堂的管道，各球隊無不希望能將選秀選擇之球員價值最大化，2007年最後一次選秀制度變革後至今無大變動，故本研究以2008年至2012年共5年的選秀概況，了解各隊選秀選擇偏好，以及相關數據進行了解各球隊的選秀成效，以登上過一軍且出賽、校正後之投球數據Sp、校正後之打擊數據Sh打擊率、Sh上壘率、Sh長打率、Sh OPS和進階數據WAR值來分類球員等級為依變項，期望能在選秀選手身分、選秀輪次、選秀中選擇投手或野手等找出選秀成功的關鍵因素。

關鍵字

日本職棒；選秀；日本職棒選秀制度；育成選手

並列摘要

Baseball Draft is the hottest topic of sports, it can change every team’s power ranking of the league, because of many Taiwan players join NPB baseball, it has been noticed by Taiwan baseball fans these years, but there is no quantitative study about NPB Draft in Taiwan. This study based on the analyze of the changes and achievements of the Japanese professional baseball draft over the years. In addition to the selection of newcomers in the NPB Draft in October every year, the Japanese professional baseball will continue to handle the Develomental draft, also known as the second draft. Japanese amateur players use these two drafts as the main channel to enter the Japanese professional palace every year, every team wants to maximize their draft value. Since the last draft system reform in 2007, there have been no major changes. Therefore, this study uses the five-year draft profile from 2008 to 2012 to understand each team’s draft selection preferences and relevant data to understand the effectiveness of each team’s draft. Have played in a military and played, corrected pitch data Sp, corrected hit data Sh batting rate, Sh on-base rate, Sh long hit rate, Sh OPS and advanced data WAR value to classify player levels as dependent variables, expect Able to find out the key factors for the success of the draft, such as the status of the draft players, the draft rounds, and the selection of pitchers or fielders in the draft.