基於多準則決策方法之數據驅動技術藍圖-以無人機技術為例

MADM methods based data-driven technology roadmap for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

李佩恩(Li Pei-En)

指導教授 ： 黃啟祐

國立臺灣師範大學/科技與工程學院/工業教育學系/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DIE.002.2018.E01

摘要

在技術快速變遷與創新的年代，企業渴望完整應變產業環境之需求與競爭者的發展，進而推導出未來產品與技術的部署，希冀結合技術面與專利面的綜合競爭力，來拓展企業的科技革新。而技術藍圖（Technology Roadmap）是未來產品與企業策略的結合，技術探勘（Technology mining） 是找出技術在相關文獻、期刊、雜誌與專業網站論壇中的資訊連結，是過去技術累積與未來技術發展之模型，結合兩者即可掌握產品、技術與專利架構，亦可進一步當成企業或研發機構內部技術規劃之參考。雖然技術藍圖是判斷技術趨勢的重要依據，但過去少有研究探勘技術資訊、進而追縱技術趨勢定義技術藍圖。因此，本研究擬發展整合技術探勘之決策分析架
構，以多屬性決策分析(MADM)建立數據驅動技術藍圖，希冀未來可以將技術藍圖與專利地圖相互結合，作為企業擬定未來產品與專利布局方向之總計畫。因此，本研究擬先以專家意見作為技術關鍵字之確認，並從所有資源中找出關鍵字間的關聯，再結合約略集合理論(Rough Set)得出不同層次關鍵字間的影響關係，最後帶入決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)找出技術間的影響程度，進而發展出技術策略藍圖，其整合市場、產品及技術相關資訊，可作為企業之研發策略、產品創新與技術的開發方向。實證研究將以有望顛覆產業未來的潛力技術─無人機為例，分析本架構之可行性。透過本研究之進程，可以得出起落裝置、無線通訊與地理區域和全球定位系統將會是未來無人機發展的三大重點技術。研究結果可供企業即時掌握競爭者與領導廠商之技術發展方向，並做為訂定未來研發策略之依據。

關鍵字

技術藍圖 ； 技術探勘 ； 多屬性決策分析法 ； 關聯規則挖掘 ； 支配型約略集合演算法 ； 決策實驗室分析法 ； 無人機 ； 約略集合理論

並列摘要

In the generation of rapid change in technology, enterprise eager to completely strain the demand of industry environment and the development of competitor, and then deduce the deployment of products and technology in future, aspiring to combine with the comprehensive competitiveness of the technology and the patent to expand the technological innovation. The technology roadmap is an integration of future products and business strategy. Technology mining is an analytical procedure to find out the technology in the link of relevant literature, journals, and professional platform, it is previous technology accumulation and future technology development model, combining both of them can predominate the products, patent and technology architecture, and also be taken a deeper reference to internal technology planning by companies and research institutions. Although the technology roadmap is an important basis for judging the trend of technology, there was few research about mining information and tracking technology trends to construct the technology roadmap. Therefore, this study intends to develop the integration of technology mining and decision analysis framework, with Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM) to build data-driven technology roadmap, hope combining technology roadmap and patent map for the enterprise to develop future products and direction of the patent portfolio in the future. Therefore, this study employs the expert’s opinion to confirm the technical key and utilizes mining technology to find out the correlation between the keywords from all sources, and combines with Dominance Based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) checking at different levels of relationships, finally introduces the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to find out the influence degree of technology and derives the technology roadmap. It will integrate market, product and technology-related information, and used as the developing direction for enterprise technology strategy. In this research, we will analyze unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) which is expected to subvert the future industry. Through the research process, it can be concluded that landing gear, wireless communication and geographical area and global positioning system will be the three key technologies for future UAV development. The results can be used in the enterprise to grasp the technical development direction of the competitors and the leaders and as the basis for the future research and development strategy.

並列關鍵字

Technology Roadmap ； Technology Mining ； MADM(Multiple Attribute Decision Making) ； Rough Set Theory(RST) ； Dominance Based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) ； DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) ； Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ； ARM(Association Rule Mining)

參考文獻

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