2018年亞洲運動會男子排球賽得分因素與比賽成績關聯之研究

本研究目的在於分析2018年亞洲運動會男子排球賽，本屆比賽前四強隊伍所有對戰場次，[中華台北隊(5場、21局)、卡達隊(7場、24局)、伊朗隊(5場、15局)、韓國隊(6場、22局)，共計(23場、82局)]之四項得分技術（攻擊得分、攔網得分、發球得分、對方失誤得分）對比賽勝率之影響。本研究應用灰色系統理論（Grey System Theory）之關聯分析法(Grey Relational Analysis)以比賽勝率為參考函數、四項得分技術為比較函數，加以探討四項得分技術與比賽勝率間關聯程度，本研究所得結果如下所述：一、本屆前四強隊伍，四項得分技術單局平均得分排序由高至低如下： (一)攻擊得分技術：1.伊朗隊14.46分，2.韓國隊13.85分，3.中華台北隊12.99分，4.卡達隊12.77分。 (二)攔網得分技術：1.卡達隊2.76分，2.伊朗隊2.46分，3.中華台北隊1.98分，4.韓國隊1.93分。 (三)發球得分技術：1.伊朗隊2.07分，2.韓國隊1.49分，3. 卡達隊1.11分，4.中華台北隊0.96分。 (四)對方失誤得分技術：1.卡達隊7.05分，2.伊朗隊6.67分，3.中華台北隊6.60分，4.韓國隊4.91分。二、經灰色關聯分析法分析後結果得出，影響本屆前四強隊伍四項得分技術與成績表現依大小分別排序為，攻擊得分(r1=0.89)、對方失誤得分(r4=0.85)、攔網得分(r2=0.78)、發球得分(r3=0.64)。三、經由數據分析得發現，中華台北在此賽事發球得分技術上未能發揮有效作用，單調無變化的發球無法造成其破壞力，因此建議在備戰未來國際賽事的訓練上應強化發球破壞性與多樣性，並增進各項得分技術的穩定性，以提升中華台北實力與競爭力，並再創佳績。

關鍵字

排球；灰色關聯分析

並列摘要

This study analyzed Men’s Volleyball at the 2018 Asian Games and all the 23 games (82 sets) from the top four strong national teams (Chinese Taipei, Qatar, Iran, and South Korea). The impacts of the four scoring techniques (attacking, blocking, serveing, and opponent’s mistakes) were examined. In this study, Grey Relational Analysis from Grey System Theory was used as the reference function and the four scoring techniques were used as the compare function. The correlation between the four scoring techniques and the winning percentage was explored. The findings were showed below. Of the four teams, the four scoring techniques were explained separately and the average point in each set was ranked from high to low as follows. (1)Attack: Iran 14.46 points, South Korea 13.85 points, Chinese Taipei 12.99 points, and Qatar 12.77 points. (2)Blocking: Qatar 2.76 points, Iran 2.46 points, Chinese Taipei 1.98 points, and South Korea 1.93 points. (3)Serve: Iran 2.07 points, South Korea 1.49 points, Qatar 1.11 points, and Chinese Taipei 0.96 points. (4)The opponent’s mistakes: Qatar 7.05 points, Iran 6.67 points, Chinese Taipei 6.60 points, and South Korea 4.91 points. With Grey Correlation Analysis, the results showed that the scoring technique that affected the performance most was attack (r1 = 0.89), followed by the opponent’s mistakes (r4 = 0.85), blocking (r2 = 0.78), and serve (r3 = 0.64). According to the data analysis, it shows that Chinese Taipei team couldn’t make effective serves as one scoring technique in this competition. Simple and unchangeable serve couldn’t cause any serious damage. Therefore, it’s suggested that when preparing international volleyball competitions in the future, serve should be more destructive and more serving styles need to be developed. The consistency of each scoring technique also needs to be improved. By doing this, it can be expected that Chinese Taipei team becomes more powerful and competitive, and will have better achievements in the future.