政治不確定性對台灣企業資本結構的影響

How Political Uncertainty Affects Capital Structure in Taiwan

吳宥頤(Wu You-Yi)

指導教授 ： 黃嘉威

國立臺灣師範大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202001119

摘要

台灣政治生態自實施民主選舉以來大致呈現兩黨政治，而兩黨最大的差異便是兩岸政策的主張，至今國外有關政治不確定性如何影響公司投資以及融資決策的研究相當豐富，然而政治對經濟的影響因地而異，台灣的政治活動不單僅是影響國內經濟政策，同時也會影響兩岸關係。本研究欲探討台灣選舉活動所造成的政治不確定性是否會對台灣企業的資本結構造成影響，採用雙重差分法(Difference in Differences)依據是否有對大陸投資分為控制組與實驗組，針對2004年總統大選民進黨當選後分析有對大陸投資的公司是否減少舉債。根據結果顯示選舉年後企業融資成本上升與假說一致，但在舉債成本上升的情況下，有投資大陸的公司反而舉債增加。此外，本研究發現在2004年選後，有投資大陸的公司其資產報酬率(ROA)與投資大陸損益顯著上升。

關鍵字

政治不確定性 ； 選舉不確定性 ； 資本結構 ； 融資成本 ； 大陸投資

並列摘要

Political environment in Taiwan has generally exhibited two-party politics since the implementation of democratic elections, and the biggest difference between the two parties is the proposition of cross-strait policies. So far, foreign studies on how political uncertainty affects corporate investment and financing decisions have been abundant. However, the impact of politics on the economy varies from place to place. Taiwanese political activities not only affect domestic economic policies, but also affect cross-strait relations. This study wants to explore whether the political uncertainty caused by Taiwanese election activities will affect the capital structure of Taiwanese enterprises, and is divided into a control group and an experimental group based on whether the enterprises invests in China. Analyze whether companies investing in China have reduced debt financing. According to the results, after the election year, the increase in corporate financing costs is consistent with our hypothesis. However, in the case of rising borrowing costs, some companies investing in China have increased their debt financing. In addition, this study finds that after the election in 2004, companies that have invested in mainland China have significantly increased their return on assets (ROA) and profit and loss on investment in China.

並列關鍵字

Political uncertainty ； Election uncertainty ； Capital structure ； Financing cost ； Investment in China

參考文獻

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