景氣好壞與犯罪率高低間之關聯性,一直是國內外學者關心的議題。一般而言,犯罪問題的發生往往是因為經濟困難,尤其失業衝擊個人和家庭的經濟生活,更是產生犯罪的主要動機。國外已有許多研究以景氣循環、失業率等因素,來探討犯罪的行為。根據過去學者的研究,犯罪會受到景氣好壞影響,景氣不好時犯罪率似乎會提高。 近年來,高學歷者之犯罪率不斷增加,犯罪種類亦推陳出新,包含詐欺、駕駛過失、公共危險、一般竊盜、一般傷害、毒品和違反商標法等,引發政府和學界的關注,探究教育和犯罪率之間的關聯性。 本研究主要在探討犯罪率、教育及景氣好壞三者間的關係,並分析男女性別在犯罪行為上的差異。研究方法上將採用複迴歸模型,樣本資料數據主要取自行政院主計處、內政部警政署、教育部及財政部之統計資料庫,研究期間從2001年至2014年,實證模型中的研究變數,在犯罪方面將採用犯罪率變數,教育方面將採用研究所及大專淨在學率變數,景氣方面則採用失業率和工業及服務業經常性薪資,另外再加入離婚率和破獲率等變數。研究結果預期可提供政府相關政策之建議參考。
The correlation between business cycles and crime rate has always been the focus of discussion for domestic and foreign scholars. In general, the problem of crime results from the economic difficulty. Especially, unemployment affects the economic life of individuals and families, which is usually the main motivation of committing crime. Many existing foreign studies use business cycles and unemployment rate to discuss the criminal behavior. According to those studies, business cycles often impact the criminal behavior, and the crime rate tends to be higher when the economic situation is bad. Recently, the crime rate for the people with higher educational levels keeps increasing. The study on exploring the relationship between education and crime rate has come to the attention of the government and academic community. This study aims to discuss the relationship among crime rate, education and business cycles, and also analyzes the differences in criminal behavior for men and women. This study will use multiple regression model and time series data between 2001 to 2014 collected from Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, National Police Agency, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Finance. The research results are expected to provide valuable inference for the government when making related policies.