家族企業外部監控、代理問題與公司價值之實證研究

本文係利用統計科學方法建構家族企業信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，期能提供投資人、金融機構及相關債權人事前預測可能發生財務危機之機率，降低財務風險損失(Financial Risk Loss)，進而增加公司績效。實證分析上，利用K-S test ，M-U test以及建立Logistic 信用風險模型，考慮所有權與經營權是否同一人衍生之代理問題，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數，增加公司價值。當所有權與經營權分開，儘早降低借款依存度，以減少財務危機發生的機率，提高公司價值；降低流動比率與內部保留比率，因應資產變現損失的安全邊際；專業經理人(CEO)重視會計師查核意見，外部監控與公司治理能力增強，提高公司績效。當經營權與所有權未分開，提高每股現金流量、現金流量比率以降低財務危機的機率；降低現金再投資比率，提高業外收支率，多角化經營降低經營風險；經營權與所有權同一人，可降低代理問題其預測能力較高，提供投資決策(Investment Decision)參考。因此，本文之實證價值與管理意涵為家族企業專業經理人(CEO)重視會計師查核意見與外部監控，可降低代理問題、提高公司治理能力(Corporate Governance Power)與公司價值。

關鍵字

專業經營；代理問題；信用風險模型；公司價值

並列摘要

The objective of this study is to construct a credit risk model, using statistical methods, for investors, financial institutions and other stakeholders for the purpose of evaluating financial risks of a business concern so as to minimize potential financial risk losses. In this study, K-S test, M-U test, and logistic credit risk models were performed to determine whether the rise of agency problem might be associated with the separation of ownership and management, or otherwise; and to test socio-economic variables that could conceivably affect corporate performance and corporate valuation. The empirical results suggest that the separation of ownership and management could adversely affect corporate performance. Fist, reduce the debt-to-equity ratio as soon as possible to reduce the probability of having a financial crisis while enhancing corporate valuation. Second, reduce the cash flow ratio and the retention ratio to establish a safety margin to cushion asset realization losses. Third, the CEO should heed the auditing advices from an accountant. At the same time, outsider monitoring and corporate governance mechanism should be instituted and fortified. For companies with combined management and ownership, it is necessary to increase the cash flow per share and the cash flow ratio to minimize the probability of a financial crisis. Moreover, such companies should reduce the cash flow reinvestment ratio, increase the non-operating income and expense ratio, and diversify the business scope in order to reduce operation risks. Lastly, a combined management and ownership arrangement would can reduce agency problems and increase the forecasting capacity.