東亞區域整合後國際貿易影響之評估

全球經濟加速發展、國際關係緩和，區域經濟合作已成為現今全球國際貿易體系發展之重要趨勢，透過洽簽自由貿易協定所達到之區域經濟整合，在區域內可消除絕大部份之關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，預計將有助於增進會員國間之貿易量，形成貿易創造效果，故全球重要經濟體均十分重視此現況與發展。鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊貿易流量，本研究針對該模型分析1997至2009年間在東亞區域經濟整合架構下影響東協與中國、日本、南韓雙邊貿易流量之因素，透過相關文獻，彙整出國民生產毛額、人口及地理距離為基礎架構，並進行修正引力模型，納入文化、邊界及自由貿易協定簽訂與否三項因素進行分析。本研究實證顯示，不論在模型一與模型二中，影響兩國間貿易流量的因素為出、進口國之國民生產毛額及地理距離。而在模型二則顯示出，區域整合對中國及南韓有明顯的貿易創造效果，對日本則其效果並不彰顯。最後，本研究則對台灣目前推行政策及後續研究提出建議，俾供參考。

關鍵字

區域經濟整合；引力模型；東協

並列摘要

Accelerated development of the global economy, international relations, ease, regional economic cooperation has become the international trading system today's global trend in the development of important, signed free trade agreements through contact of regional economic integration achieved, in the region to eliminate most of the tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, expected to help increase the volume of trade between Member States, the formation of trade creation effect, therefore, all the world's major economies attach great importance to this current situation and development. View of the gravity model of bilateral trade flows may be valid, in this study, the model for this study from 1997 to 2009 between the regional economic integration in East Asia under the impact of the ASEAN framework, China, Japan, South Korea bilateral trade flows of factors, through the literature, compile the gross domestic product, population and geographic distance infrastructure, and to modify gravity model, into the culture, borders and free trade agreements signed or three factors were analyzed. The empirical study shows, whether in model 1 and model 2, affect trade flows between the two factors out of the importing country's gross domestic product and geographic distance. In model 2 shows, regional integration on China and South Korea have significant trade creation effect, the effect on Japan is not manifest. Finally, this research is on Taiwan's implementation of policies and recommendations for further study, to serve for reference.