外部人、會計師與公司績效之實證研究

本研究主要係利用統計科學方法建立預警模型，重視外部人會計師(Outsider CPAs)監督角色，在公司財務尚未發生危機前，事前預測並降低公司可能發生財務危機之機率，進而提升公司績效。實證分析上，使用財務比率與公司治理變數分析找出提升公司績效之顯著變數，透過常態性檢定(K-S tests)、平均數檢定(M-U tests)，建立logit迴歸模型。研究發現財務比率變數以財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力指標為主。重視外部人會計師(Outsider CPAs)之監督，可提高公司治理能力（Corporate Governance）與公司績效（Corporate Performance）。利息保障倍數愈高公司償債能力增強，對債權人愈有保障，提高固定資產週轉率可增強公司經營能力，進而提高公司績效。研究樣本選取2000年至2008年間發生財務危機公司與正常公司各133家,合計266家，採1:1配對方式，進行羅吉斯迴歸分析，財務危機發生前一至前三年，預測正確率達99.25%、96.24%、93.98%。本研究實證價值係重視外部人會計師監督之公司治理機制，可以降低公司發生財務危機之機率，進而提高公司績效。因此本研究焦點意涵為財務風險管理（Financial Risk Management）與公司治理（Corporate Governance）。

關鍵字

外部人；會計師(CPAs) ；公司治理；公司績效

並列摘要

The study primarily focuses on building an early warning model with emphasis on outsider CPAs in a supervising role to be able to predict and reduce the chances of financial distress occurring within the company before such incidents happen, thereby enhancing corporate performance. The empirical analysis makes use of financial ratio and corporate governance variables to find the variables for improving corporate performance; the logistic regression model is built through the use of K-S tests and M-U tests. The study finds that the major financial ratio variables are financial structure, solvency, operational performance, and profitability indicators. Prioritizing the supervising capabilities of outsider CPAs is able to enhance corporate governance as well as corporate performance. The higher the times interest earned, the stronger is the company’s solvency, better protecting the interests of the creditor. In addition, increasing the fixed asset turnover rate can enhance the business operations of the company, which will in turn improve corporate performance. For sampling purposes, the study chose an equal number (1:1 ratio) of companies which have experienced financial distress between 2000 and 2008 as well as healthy companies for a total of 266 (133 companies each). Then logistic regression analysis is used; one to three years before the financial distress occurred, the prediction accuracy rates were 99.25%, 96.24%, and 93.98% respectively. The study’s empirical value is in prioritizing the corporate governance mechanism of outsider and CPA supervision, which can reduce the rate of financial distress occurring within the company, thereby enhancing corporate performance. Consequently, the focused implementation of the study is financial risk management and corporate governance.