台灣颱風雨量分佈與道路災損關聯性探討

台灣地震、颱風、豪雨、乾旱及寒流等災害性的天氣現象發生頻繁，常造成生命財產之重大損失；為了讓民眾了解各種災害的原因及防範措施，讓災損減至最小，政府機關建置了許多災害相關的資料庫提供民眾查詢參考，若能善用這些已有的資料，擴大應用層面，不只是基本的查詢功能，相信將使這些資料更具價值。本論文即是使用交通部運輸研究所建置之公路防救災系統，以及中央氣象局氣候統計資料和颱風資料庫，經過資料探勘（Data mining）分類、統計，再將整理好之資料使用地理資訊系統(Arc GIS)，以2008年卡玫基颱風、薔蜜颱風和2009年莫拉克颱風為例，繪製颱風降雨量分佈圖並套疊道路災損坐標，研究台灣颱風降雨量與道路災損之關聯性。本研究依據降雨量與災害的空間分佈，發現卡玫基、莫拉克和薔蜜颱風都是在累積雨量達0∼100mm的時候就開始發生少量災損，到了100∼300mm之間災損處數為最多。災損統計部分則道路土石流阻斷、道路邊坡落石坍方、道路路基流失為最多之災損形態，而颱風發生最多的災害都是以災害程度中度最多。

關鍵字

公路防救災系統；颱風災損類型；克利金推估

並列摘要

Natural hazards, such as earthquake, typhoon, torrential rain, flood and drought, frequently cause a great deal of casualties and property damages in Taiwan. The governmental agencies have established many disaster-related data banks open to the public in order to educate people to understand the causes of disasters and how to response to the disasters occurred in the surroundings. These data banks would be more valuable only if they were fully and wisely used by the public. The highway disaster prevention and rescue information system by the Ministry of Communications Transportation Research Institute and the Typhoon data bank by the Central Weather Bureau are good examples to demonstrate how these data could be analyzed to produce some useful information through data mining. This research correlated data of road damages during certain typhoons with typhoon rainfalls and tried to define a threshold rainfall causing the road damage. The data of road damages were registered in the ArcGIS overlaid by the typhoon rainfalls to evaluate their inter-relationship. Data from three typhoons were used. They are the KALMAEGI typhoon, the JANGMI typhoon, 2008,and the MORAKOT typhoon, 2009. The typhoon rainfall distribution were interpolated and gridded by the Kriging method. The result shows that although some minor road damages occur in the accumulated rainfall of 100mm, the major road damages occur in the accumulated rainfall of 300mm. The MORAKOT typhoon has set the record on the road damages. The main types of road damage were caused by the debris flows, the side-slope failures, and the subgrade washed-off. Nevertheless, road damages caused by the typhoon rainfall are measured in moderate degree.