台灣受限於政治關係,在2010年「東協加三」成形後將面臨無與倫比之危機,現今台灣政府已與中國簽訂「兩岸金融監理合作備忘錄」(MOU),以及「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」(ECFA),其研究報告中出現台灣許多產業會受到嚴重衝擊,因此本研究運用引力模型設計出不同的模擬情境進行動態分析,研究期間將設定2008/01至2011/12,觀察是否因ECFA簽訂後,台灣進出口貿易值是否具有貿易轉向,並根據此模型分析之結果,提出具體政策建議,以供未來執政政府及產業界參考。
Taiwan position is extremely not well, after the ASEAN+3 was sign in 2010, because of Taiwan was limited by mainland Chain. Taiwan goverment gas signed agreement that Memorandum of Understanding(MOU) and Economic Cooperation Framework(ECFA) with mainland China. Therefore the study, the gravity model, special charater that is different simulation situation for dynamic analysis. The study case gad spent many time from January 2008 to December 2011. Observation after signed ECFA. Taiwan gas value of trade import and export trade better than better. According to the model analysis makes concrete policy recommendations. Model offer to the ruling goverment and industry making a good policy in the future.