再探討1997年亞洲金融風暴之成因-運用因素分析法於Logit與Probit模型

1997年亞洲金融危機為東亞國家的貨幣金融與經濟發展帶來嚴重之打擊。過去研究亞洲金融危機因素不外乎分為基本面與金融面，但雙方立論存有盲點，且亞洲各國情形不一。本研究除認同傳統對於金融危機之看法外，另提出1997年亞洲金融風暴發生前，外資進出亞洲「熱錢」之變化，是否造成此次金融風暴之因素。本研究亦將外資區分為外人直接投資、外人證券投資與外人其他投資，試圖找尋外資資金變化更具解釋之因素。因此本研究首先運用因素分析法將13項總體經濟指標化繁為簡，找出影響此次金融危機之預警指標的四個因子，其次將找尋之預警指標運用於Logit model與Probit model進行預測，找尋東協五國各國發生原因與外資之間關係，再探討1997年亞洲金融風暴之成因。

關鍵字

亞洲金融風暴；東協五國；因素分析法； Logit model ； Probit model

並列摘要

The asian financial crisis in1997 caused a severe blow to the monetary financial and economic development of all East Asian countries. The factors on the past research is nothing more than to be divided into the fundamentals and finance, but some blind spots in both arguments are existent, and the situation is different in other Asian countries. In this study, not only to the recognition of traditional view of the financial crisis, but also to find the foreign capital out of Asia "hot money" changes, whether caused by the factors of the financial turmoil before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The foreign capital is divided into foreign direct investment, and foreign portfolio investment and other foreign investment in this study, which trying to find the factors of changes in foreign investment funds with more explanation. In this thesis, we first use factor analysis to simplify 13 overall economic indicators, and to identify four factors which affect the early warning indicators of the financial crisis. Secondly, we find the warning indicators used in the Logit model and the Probit model in prediction. In order to look for the relationship of ASEAN-5 between the causes and foreign factors, then finally to investigate the causes of the Asian financial crisis in 1997.