被忽視的價格因素－對石油安全的再檢討 以2008年油價變動為例

Price factors neglected - to review the safety of oil

黃昶民(Chang-Ming Huang)

指導教授 ： 郝培芝

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

本論文主要研究意識為兩個問題：首先，傳統石油安全理論均以確保供應不中斷為主要研究課題並認為在供給無虞的情形下價格則不會呈現不理性的上漲。但是在2008年卻顯現出與這種假設不同的情況：WTI石油價格在2008年發生暴漲與暴落的不合理狀況。本論文另闢蹊徑，在研究2008年WTI石油價格的劇烈變動後，發現在未受到傳統所認為的供應中斷下，WTI石油期貨市場價格卻呈現大幅度的波動，顯示傳統確保石油供給不虞中斷的石油安全思考架構需要做轉換，價格因素需要被列入石油安全體系的架構中予以重視。傳統石油安全研究的層級，在國家層次理性追求極大化供應來源與排他性追求油源的方式，不但無助於本國的安全，並會引起國際局勢的緊張與油價的上漲。
　　本論文的第二個研究問題則是檢視造成2008年WTI石油期貨價格的高度變動的原因為何?本論文研究顯示，現今石油價格的主要訂價標準WTI石油期貨市場，在成為一種投資型的衍生性金融商品後，面臨下列主要的變化：一、國際資金流動自布列頓森林體系瓦解後呈現高度的流動性與追求高投資報酬的趨勢，讓市場的參與者轉為多元化，基本面的供給與需求已不能反映實際的石油價格，傳統的石油跨國企業與產油國對於油價的影響力大不如前，而跨國性金融機構對於油價的影響力則與日俱增。其次，油價受到金融因素的影響而使美國聯準會的貨幣政策與石油價格產生連結，2008年的油價飆升的主要因素之一就是美國聯準會的利率決定造成石油價格具有利差的空間，而讓大量的資金湧入石油期貨市場，造成2008年前半年價格的上揚；並在次貸風暴擴大後，投資者的財務去槓桿化而促成2008年後半年大幅下跌。最後，去金融去管制化與自由化政策讓石油期貨市場的監管功能不彰，而使石油期貨市場缺乏有效監督與管理，而呈現過度投機的情形。以上三者的結合最後造成2008年的油價泡沫。

關鍵字

石油安全 ； 石油期貨 ； 石油價格

並列摘要

In this paper, sense of two major research questions: First, the main research topic in the traditional theory of oil security are to ensure an uninterrupted supply of the oil, and believed that the price is not rendered irrational rise when there is no issue on the supply. However, it has revealed a different situation in 2008 with this assumption: WTI oil prices presented in a very unreasonable situation of dramatically up and down. In this paper, study of the drastic change of the WTI oil prices in 2008 with a different prospection, we found that WTI oil futures market prices is having a substantial fluctuations without being under the supply disruption, which is a must factor of the traditional assumption. It shows that the traditional to ensure no disruption of oil supply as the thinking of oil security framework needs to be changed, the price factors should to be included in this framework with higher attention. The level of conventional oil security studies at the national level, to maximize the rational pursuit of the sources of supply and the exclusive pursuit of oil sources in a way which does not help to the national security, but will lead to international tensions and rising of oil prices.
The second research question of this paper is to view the root cause of the huge price change of WTI oil futures market in 2008? In this paper, researches have shown that the main pricing standard of the current oil prices, the WTI oil futures market, has become an investment-type derivatives financial categories, faces the following major changes: First, international capital flows since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, presenting the trend of a high degree of mobility and the pursuit of higher return on investment, makes the market participants be diversified. In fundamentals, the supply and demand in oil can not reflect the actual prices, the traditional international oil corporations and the oil-producing countries have less impact on the oil price than before, while the international financial institutions for the growing influence of oil prices. Second, due to the price of oil depends on the financial factors, leads to the link of oil price with the fallout of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. One of the main factors for the rising oil prices in 2008, is that the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates caused oil prices with profit gap, which let a lot of money influx of the oil futures market, resulting the prices rose in the first half of 2008; and cross-largest in the sub-prime crisis, the investor's financial deleveraging forced the price fell sharply at second half of 2008. Finally, go to the financial deregulation and liberalization policies to allow the oil futures market to function is compromised, leaving the oil futures market, a lack of effective supervision and management, while the present situation of excessive speculation. The combination of three or more final result in 2008 the oil price bubble.

並列關鍵字

Oil Security ； Oil Futures ； Oil Price

參考文獻

卡爾．哈克(Carl Haacke)

米爾頓．傅利曼（Milton Friedman）

麥克．克雷爾(Michael T.Klare)

葛林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）

羅伯特．J．希勒(Robert J.Shiller)