課徵能源稅對產業衝擊之模擬分析兼論其回饋效果

The Economic Impacts of Energy Tax and It's Feedback Effects

洪群登(Cyong-Deng Hong)

指導教授 ： 楊浩彥

共同指導教授 ： 黃芳雅

國立臺北大學/商學院/合作經濟學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

一個國家在發展之初期，由於競爭力的薄弱，為扶植國內的基本產業（重工業、輕工業）往往對能源的價格皆採取低定價及能源補貼的策略來提升自我的競爭力。幾十年過去，我國已從開發中國家擠升至已開發國家之林，但其本身為維持與鄰國的競爭力所採取的低能源價格及能源補貼策略。長期下，已使得資源扭曲分配，另外我國平均每人人口二氧化碳排放密度高達全世界第一，全球暖化課題逐漸重視之下，台灣迫切需要反省自我能源策略所衍生出的資源扭曲及環境問題。
本論文主要討論課徵能源稅後對我國產業結構的衝擊及其回饋效果，針對課徵能源稅後對產業的變動，給予政策執行者一個模擬參考。本研究將重點聚焦於我國對於課徵能源稅制的反應結果，此對整個產業間的衝擊及其各版本的回饋效果，並瞭解上述各反應交互影響之作用，充份了解課徵能源稅可能對我國所產生的多面向影響。
本研究運用可計算一般均衡模型(CGE)，討論課徵能源稅能經濟社會影響，得出課徵能源稅並降降低間接稅或全部皆用於政府支出方案，都可以減緩能源稅制所帶來負面的衝擊，但是即使全部應用稅賦後，仍無法完全的抵銷能源稅所造成的經濟衝擊。模擬結果表示，如果能將稅賦完全用於減低營利事業所得稅時，對產業而言為最佳的稅賦應用政策，因為將稅賦直接回饋於各部門，產業結構可以得到最直接的效益，所以得到效果也是最佳；而模擬最差的稅賦應用為全部用於政府支出，由於此稅賦應用會經過多次轉手，造成多餘的無謂成本，所得效果為模擬中最不佳的。故考慮產業衝擊時，建議在稅賦政策應用上，可多考量各產業所獲得的回饋，以有效的使用稅額，減少無謂成本的產生。

關鍵字

二氧化碳、能源稅、回饋效果、可計算一般均衡理論

並列摘要

As a developing country, it usually makes a low price for energy use. By lower price and the subsidy of energy strategies, it could advance its competition at the initial stage of development in order that it could develop domestic industries (heavy industry and light industry). Nowadays, Taiwan has become one of the developed countries with decade’s efforts. However, the resources are distributed inappropriately for the long-term strategies due to the competition with neighborhood countries. The density of CO2 emission in Taiwan is the highest around the world; as a result, it has been the most urgent issue to discuss that Taiwan government needs to reflect itself first under the circumstance of greenhouse effect.
The main purpose of this thesis is going to discuss the impact and feedback effect on Taiwan industrial structure after energy tax practice. This issue might provide a model for the policy executives to adjust the currents. The research will focus on the feedbacks of our energy tax practice. We will discuss its impact to whole industry, the different reactions from different fields, and the interactive effect among those reactions. With this research, we hope to know the multiple-effect that the energy tax practice might bring sufficiently.
This study formulates the CGE to discuss the influence on the economy in society. This indicates that levying energy tax and decreasing indirect tax could reduce the negative strikes efficiently. Meanwhile, the policy also works in the situation by the project with government’s expenses. Nevertheless, it still could not overcome the economical difficulties even when the taxes are put in use.
As the simulated result shows, there might be two different conclusions. It would be the most successful policy when the tax is totally used for reducing the tax of sales revenue and in this case, the taxes would balance with each department. On the contrary, we might find out that the worst condition happens when the government is at the expense of taxes which are transferred and dealt with every relevant department. Therefore, it is suggested that the tax feedback of each industry business should be used satisfactorily to avoid capitalized cost with all things considered.

並列關鍵字

CO2, Energy tax, Feedback effects, Computable General Equilibrium Theory (CGE)

參考文獻

黃耀煇（2002）。以環境稅為基礎的前瞻性財政改革。經濟前瞻，第84卷，頁113-120。

楊浩彥（2002）。簡介可計算一般均衡模型。

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