我國部門碳預算與減量路徑規劃

Sectoral Carbon Budget and Optimal CO2 Mitigation Path Planning in Taiwan

張震宇(Chen-Yu Chang)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

Norhaus (1992)開啟氣候政策評估之先河，引起後續學者廣泛討論，特別是分析減量技術與氣候政策之關聯性。台灣已制定溫室氣體減量目標，然而，如何建立減量績效追蹤機制，確保減量承諾落實，即成為相當重要的課題。本研究引入聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change,. UNFCCC, 2010)倡議的「減量承諾量化目標」(Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Objective, QELROs)管理，及英國碳預算機制，並以最適控制方法，分析國家與部門(包括工業、能源與運輸部門)減量技術與最適排放時徑(time path)關聯性，再利用數值方法，模擬不同減量知識累積效果對工業最適排放時徑影響。據此，提出「先減緩，後減量」的台灣整體與部門碳預算與QELROs策略，提供政府落實溫室氣體減排目標管理之參考。

關鍵字

二氧化碳減量路徑 ； 最適控制理論 ； 碳預算 ； QELROs

並列摘要

Nordhaus (1993) is a pioneering paper that discusses climate change policy. It has facilitated a great deal of research in this field. In particular, what the relationship is between greenhouse gas abatement knowledge, and optimal emission path planning. Taiwan’s government has established greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives, by 2020 as well as 2025 respectively. However, how to transfer this pledge to become quantified objectives management, confirming how this target will be achieved, is a key issue for climate policy in Taiwan. This study introduces a “Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Objectives (QELROs)” practices as well as “ The Carbon Budget ” mechanism launching by the U.K., which was initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010.In addition, this research applies optimal control methodology and numerical analysis, simulating optimal greenhouse gas emission paths by “learning by doing” effect in sectors. The research plans a three phases QELROs for three sectors (including Industrial, Transportation and Energy three sectors). The optimal emissions policy implication behind these QELROs for the industrial sector is “Stabilize First, Reduce Later”.

並列關鍵字

Carbon Mitigation Path ； Optimal Control Theory ； Carbon Budget ； QELROs.

參考文獻

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