新北市三芝淡水地區海平面上升調適成本曲線之建立

Adaptation Cost Curve of Sea Level Rise in Sanzhi and Tamsui, New Taipei City

吳克偉(Ko-Wei Wu)

指導教授 ： 蕭代基

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

氣候變遷問題毫無疑問地是人類近年來最嚴峻的挑戰，而處理氣候變遷的方法為減量與調適。然而調適一直以來卻未受到應有的重視，直到近期各國漸漸發現無法達到當初預期的減量目標，且氣候變遷又勢必發生，因此調適方法重新被拿出來討論。台灣的情況和各國相似，調適為近期才漸漸受到關注的議題，因此相關研究仍相對稀少，也缺乏調適政策的決策工具，因此本研究期望能夠利用調適成本曲線的建立，一方面說明調適的重要性，期望調適方法能愈來愈受重視；另一方面，介紹一套適用於調適的決策工具，期望能對未來的調適研究有所幫助。
本研究選擇新北市三芝淡水地區的海平面上升議題做為研究對象，並選擇海堤、填海造陸、編籬定沙、海岸防風林、養灘和撤離做為調適措施並建立調適成本曲線。最後發現，在海平面上升程度較小的情境下，執行軟性工程調適措施如經營海岸防風林、養灘等方法，將能夠帶來較大效益；而在海平面上升程度較大的情境下，仍需仰賴傳統硬性海岸防護工程措施，且未必能夠達到預期目的。因此仍須強調面對氣候變遷時，調適與減量同等重要，且對於氣候變遷應抱持積極面對而非消極接受的態度。

關鍵字

調適, 調適成本曲線, 海平面上升

並列摘要

There is undoubted that climate change problem is the most serious challenge in recent years, and how we dealing with this problem is mitigation and adaptation. However, adaptation hasn’t received the great attention which it should have. Until now, most countries found that they can’t achieve the mitigation goal which they set few years ago, and climate change will occur definitely. Thus, adaptation gain the attention again. The situation of Taiwan is just like other countries that adaptation just gain the attention in recent year, so we lack of adaptation researches and method. We hope this study can arouse people’s attention of adaptation and introduce a research method through constructing the adaptation cost curve.
This study select Sanzhi and Tansui, New Taipei City as the research site, and use seawall, sea reclamation, sand-fixed hedge, coastal windbreak, beach nourishment and retreat as the adaptation measures. According to the adaptation cost curve result, we found in the low sea level rise scenario, the soft engineering method will bring great benefits. In the high sea level rise scenario, we should rely on traditional engineering method, but may not be able to achieve the desired goal. Finally, mitigation and adaptation is equal important when we dealing with the climate change problem, and the attitude of facing climate change problem should be positive instead of negative.

並列關鍵字

Adaptation, Adaptation Cost Curve

參考文獻

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