- 學位論文
我國低碳能源政策對電力供給規劃之影響分析─應用3E多目標規劃模型
Impact Analysis between Low-Carbon Energy Policy and Electricity Supply Planning in Taiwan
摘要
能源、經濟與環境(Energy, Economic and the Environment，3E)議題之影響評估為我國相關發展政策與電源開發所需衡量之重要準則之一。綜觀台灣的電力系統具有獨立封閉之電力網路，一旦發生電力短缺，無法藉由他國進口電力以供奧援，且在環境保護成為普世價值，以及政府的法規政策下，環境議題亦在某種程度上引導或限制電源開發的方向。本研究考量研究方法之特性，嘗試以產業關聯分析結合多目標規劃法建構出多目標規劃模型，用以進行單年度間3E多目標發展下之電力供給規劃。研究報告中，將以核能及再生能源進行情境模擬分析，其主要結論為： 《情境一》在台電核能一、二、三廠共六部機組延役之假設主軸下，亦以增設燃氣複循環機組容量及汽電共生發電機組為優先。分析結果顯示，在裝置容量方面，2015年裝置容量達53,247MW、2025年裝置容量平均可達67,292MW，其中，無碳能源裝置容量約占總裝置容量15∼27%；在發電量方面，2015年發電量平均可達2,948億度、2025年平均發電量約為3,687億度，其中，無碳能源發電量占總發電量比例約14∼21%。單位發電成本2025年最高可達2.4418元/度，最低為2.2974元/度。單位CO2排放量2025年最高可達0.6132公斤/度，最低0.5622公斤/度。 《情境二》在台電核能一、二、三廠共六部機組陸續屆齡除役之假設主軸下，若僅以既有及規劃中發電機組商轉供電外，為能滿足全國電力需求及符合政府合理使用天然氣之目標下，優先增設燃氣複循環機組及汽電共生發電機組之容量。分析結果顯示，在裝置容量方面，2025年達67,292MW，其中，無碳能源裝置容量約占總裝置容量9∼20%；在發電量方面，2025年達3,567億度，其中，無碳能源發電量占總發電量比例有較大起伏，約占3∼21%。單位發電成本2025年最高可達2.5948元/度，最低為2.4475元/度。單位CO2排放量2025年最高可達0.705公斤/度，最低0.6363公斤/度。
並列摘要
One of the important criteria need to measure is the assessment of the impact of the energy, economic and environmental issues (3E) on our policies and power development. Taiwan's electricity system is independent and closed, in the event of a power shortage, the electricity supply cannot be imported. This study considers the characteristics of the research methods, try to input-output analysis combined with multi-objective programming method and to construct a multi-objective programming model for the conduct of a single year 3E multi-objective development of electricity supply planning. Scenario 1 : Setting the Taipower's nuclear power plants, the six units continued operators to switch. In 2015 total installed power capacity amounted to the 53,247 MW and in 2025 up to the 67,292 MW. In which the proportion of the total installed capacity by 15 to 27% is carbon-free energy installed capacity. In 2015 the power generation average of the 294.8 billion kWh up to the 368.7 billion kWh in 2025. In which the proportion of the total power generation by 14 to 21% is carbon-free energy power generation. In 2025, the unit cost of power generation is between 2.2974 NT/kWh and 2.4418 NT/kWh. The unit CO2 emission is between 0.5622 kg/kWh and 0.6132 kg/kWh. Scenario 2 : Setting the Taipower's nuclear power plants, the six units decommissioning on scheduled. In 2025 total installed power capacity amounted to the 67,292 MW. In which the proportion of the total installed capacity by 9 to 20% is carbon-free energy installed capacity. In 2025 the power generation average of the 356.7 billion kWh. In which the proportion of the total power generation by 3 to 21% is carbon-free energy power generation. In 2025, the unit cost of power generation is between 2.4475 NT/kWh and 2.5948 NT/kWh. The unit CO2 emission is between 0.6363 kg/kWh and 0.705 kg/kWh.