結構型外幣商品投資報酬與風險分析:以我國銀行之雙元貨幣交易為例

An Analysis of the Return and Risk of Structured Notes-A Case Study of Dual Currency Investment in Taiwan

游雅芳(Yu Ya-Fang)

指導教授 ： 陳達新

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

2008年因雷曼兄弟連動債所引發全球市場金融風暴，台灣當然也無法避免這場災難，造成一般投資者重大的損失，對於一般投資者知識不對稱下，無法了解自己投資的產品，引起許多金融客訴案件，因此金管會對於結構式商品投資的條件加以訂定規範，對於風險告知部份應採錄音存檔方式控管。風暴後全球經濟不振，各國使用各種寬鬆政策，利率走勢下滑，一般民眾存款利率太低，逐投資其他金融產品，追求較高的報酬，雙元貨幣成為財富管理重要的工具。
本研究希能就雙元貨幣的報酬和風險探討，一般民眾如何利用雙元貨幣的工具，做好資產配置，在可承受的風險下，也可以獲得滿意的報酬，做此研究探討，期能給予投資人參考建議。主要研究結論與建議如下：
1.投資此種商品的報酬率通常高於一般的外幣定存，但是投資人也必須負擔本金到期後可能被轉換成弱勢貨幣的風險。
2.投資人在承作雙元貨幣時最困難的就是如何設定匯率與期間，由本研究發現投資雙元貨幣的獲利關鍵，取決於承作的時間點，時機為兩個貨幣匯率呈現區間盤整的格局，如果匯率為多頭及空頭的趨勢時，投資人要停、看、聽，應考慮到可能被轉換成弱勢貨幣或被套牢匯率高點的風險。轉換後是否可其他投資工具可交互運用，以獲得更佳的收益。
3.建議銀行業者應對投資人詳細說明商品的風險及條款，以避免客戶在虧損後，對銀行產生客訴而影響大眾對銀行的信任感、形象、信譽不佳，導致營運成本提高或業務推廣的困難。
4.建議投資人能夠知己知彼，百戰百勝，投資前應對投資商品應充份了解其架構、條款及風險，在下手時，能夠謹慎評估，依據自己的外幣配置及風險承受度，妥善運用此投資工具，達到財富累積的目的。
5.對於日後研究者的建議，操作雙元貨幣策略可加入技術分析的工具，配合總體經濟情況找到最佳投資的時機研究，可趨吉避凶，滿足投資人的收益，希望後續研究者可以作更深入的探討和研究。

關鍵字

雙元貨幣、外匯選擇權、結構型商品、衍生性商品

並列摘要

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered a global financial crisis in 2008 and caused tremendous losses for many investors. The Taiwan Monetary Authority sets regulations on the structured notes investments as many investors do not understand properly about their investment portfolios due to the asymmetry of knowledge which have resulted in a large numbers of lawsuits in Taiwan. Recordings are required when the investors are being informed about the risk of their investment portfolios. Expansionary monetary policies are widely taken by lots of countries during the recession, making the interest rates are significantly dropped. As a result, investors started to search for other investments portfolios which could generate a higher returns rather than depositing the money in bank, for example dual currency investment.
The purpose of this study is to examine the risks and returns of the dual currency investment. Make suggestions on generating satisfactory returns using the dual currency investment and hope investors can be enlightened through this research. The main conclusions and suggestions are as below:
1.The return rate of this portfolio is generally higher than that of time deposit of foreign currencies. The investors, however, have to bear the risks of the principal being exchanged as a weak currency on the maturity day.
2.The key for managing dual currencies investments through setting of exchange rates and timing is discovered by this research. Investors can generate profits when the exchange rate of two currencies shows a range consolidation pattern. If the exchange rate are showing bull or bear tendencies, investors should pay attention to the possibility of being exchanged as weak currency or being arbitraged at the highest exchange rate. Other financial tools can be used to generate a higher return after exchanged as well.
3.The banks are advised to perform detailed explanations to the investors about the risks and clauses of the investments. Avoiding the suspicion on the creditability of the banks once the investors are suffered from losses, the banks can prevent from the increase in operating cost and the difficulty of promoting its business.
4.Investors should understand the investment portfolios properly, especially the risks, clauses and structures about the investments, before performing the investment. Accessing the investment along with individual foreign currencies portfolios and the potential risks, investors can generate satisfactory returns using the dual currency investment.
5.The suggestions made in this research can be associated with technical analyzing tools and the current global economic situation while investors managing their dual currencies investment portfolios. It helps investors to generate satisfactory returns. Hopefully researchers can make further discussion in the future on dual currencies investment based on this research.

並列關鍵字

Dual Currency Investment ； Currency Options ； Structured Notes ； Derivatives

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