電子業財務危機預警分析之實證研究

A Study on Electronic Industry financial crisis prediction models

邱立成(Chiu, Li-Chen)

指導教授 ： 林泉源

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2009年)

摘要

會計資訊是公司活動的紀錄。財務報表是瞭解這些活動的語言，運用公司公布的會計項目去計算所得到的財務比率，是否可作為預測公司未來經營能力的指標，乃成為投資人與債權人關切的議題。然而，財務報導是根據一般公認會計原則編制，採用應計基礎，對於影響公司面臨資金缺口的現金流量揭露要求較無法兼顧。因此應考量相關財務資訊的各種影響面向，以能更趨瞭解企業是否在未來會面臨無法履行債務或承諾的可能，進而保障投資人與債權人的權益
本研究採配對樣本設計，以電子業上市上櫃公司為研究對象，選取民國 97 年度期間發生財務危機之公司及配對之正常公司，以危機發生前五年之財務報表為基礎，計算傳統財務比率變數、現金流量比率變數、相關營業成長率以及前述變數之平方值。先以逐步區別分析，判定各變數於預測企業財務危機之重要性排序；最復，藉由區別分析法，預測企業是否發生財務危機，以建立財務危機預警模式。
根據研究結果，部分現金流量比率及財務比率之平方值為預測之重要變數，兼具短期及長期預測力，顯示增添比率之平方值變數進行財務預測，對提昇區別能力確有助益，故變數之二次方關係對於預測能力有重大之影響。

關鍵字

財務危機、預警模型、現金流量

並列摘要

Accounting is the information for recording companies’ operation activities. And financial report could be taken as a tool to understand those operations. It would be an important issue concerned by investors and creditors that could it been available to predict companies’ future operation performance by calculating and evaluating related financial ratios based on accounting record issued by companies. However, financial reporting is made based on general acceptable accounting principle which is also accrued base and may not give full information relating to cash flow of companies. Hence, we consider other aspect of financial information influence and try to build prediction model to more understand reimbursement ability of companies, to try to insure investors’ and creditors’ interest and right from financial crisis companies.
The objects of this study are Taiwan listed companies, having financial crises in 2008. And to select comparisons based on their similarities of homogeneity and scale size. Then, to calculate traditional financial ratios, cash flow ratios, related performance growing ratios and square value of front ratios according to financial statements of 5 years end before financial crises. Using Stepwise Discriminate analysis to determine sequence of influence degree of each variable and finally build up the financial crisis prediction model by discriminate analysis.
This research indicates that some cash flow variables and square values are important factors of prediction including short-term and long-term. And increase degree of accurate of the prediction. It shows that square values of financial ratios significantly improving the prediction ability.

並列關鍵字

Financial crisis, prediction model, cash flow

參考文獻

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